The New Church of Football (reformed)

Falling down in the draft

2008-01-22T20:04:00.000-08:00

The first Bears draft pick that I remember was Walter Payton, and here's the way things were in the South in 1975 -- despite the excitement about our new rookie HB, I had to wait until 1976 just to see him play.

We wouldn't be good for a while yet, but the selection of Payton in 1975 was the beginning of a golden age of Bears scouting and drafting that would continue through the selection of RB Neal Anderson in 1986.

Hits
RB Walter Payton, Jackson State, 1975. Simply the greatest Bear of all time.
DE/DT Dan Hampton, Arkansas, 1979. Another Hall of Famer.
DE/OLB Al Harris, Arizona State, 1979. Great pass rusher who sat out the 1985 season in a contract dispute. That gaffe tarnished what was otherwise a very good career.
OLB Otis Wilson, Louisville, 1980. He struggled for the first four years, but once the lights went on in 1984 he was a lights-out, Pro-Bowl star.
RT Keith Van Horne, USC, 1981. Though he wasn't a Top 10 pick, Van Horne (No. 11) was as close to a sure thing as you're likely to see. He was always good, and occasionally great.
QB Jim McMahon, Brigham Young, 1982. He was hurt entirely too much, but a great QB nonetheless.
LT Jim Covert, Pittsburgh, 1983. Back injures shortened his career, but Covert was likely the greatest LT in franchise history.
WR Willie Gault, Tennessee, 1983. Twelve picks after snagging Covert, the Bears got a rare specimen in this Olympic sprinter. Though not a complete player, Gault's talents were so extreme that he changed games simply by stepping on the field.
DT William Perry, Clemson, 1985. Perry was more of a novelty than a true defensive star his rookie season, but he was a productive, disruptive player for much of his career.
RB Neal Anderson, Florida, 1986. Chicago scored with the last pick in the first round, with Anderson ably replacing Payton after his retirement.

Acceptable
OT Ted Albrecht, California, 1977. Albrecht was a better than average starting tackle for several years and was part of a young offensive unit that sprung Payton for some of his best seasons.

Disappointments
OT Dennis Lick, Wisconsin, 1976. Injuries kept him from meeting his considerable potential.

Busts
Trading the team's No. 1 pick to Cleveland for Mike Phipps, 1978. The front office hoped it was acquiring a veteran leader to spark the Bears' Payton-led offense, but Phipps was so mediocre he struggled to replace gritty Bob Avelini.

Since then, though, the Bears have missed more than they've hit. Take a look at their first-round picks since 1987...

Hits
MLB Brian Urlacher, New Mexico, 2000. Drafted as a weakside disrupter, Urlacher struggled at the position until injuries moved him into the starting MLB role his rookie season. He'll ultimately be remembered as one of the top five greatest Bear linebackers.
DT Tommie Harris, Oklahoma, 2004. Though his health has been a bit spotty, Harris is one of the most athletic DTs in the NFL and a mid-round steal.

Acceptable
RB/FB Brad Muster, Stanford, 1988. For a while it looked like the Muster/Anderson combo would provide a classic NFL rushing attack. Today, Muster looks like one of the last true rushing fullbacks in NFL history. He was a solid and interesting player, but never rose to greatness before departing in free agency.
WR Wendell Davis, Louisiana State, 1988. Another late-in-the-round pick, Davis had a few decent seasons before blowing up both his knees on a single play in Philadelphia.
CB Donnell Woolford, Clemson, 1989. The Bears hoped they'd solved their CB issues with Woolford, but he was never more than a functional journeyman.
DE Trace Armstrong, Florida, 1989. Armstrong was a better player after he left Chicago, but he was a valuable -- though not stellar -- contributor before hitting the road as a free agent.
S Mark Carrier, Southern California, 1990. If you only looked at Carrier's rookie season, you'd think you'd found a great one, but unfortunately time went on. The Bears drafted Carrier No. 6 when the safety agreed before the draft to a contract, and he immediately rewarded the team with 10 interceptions and the Defensive Rookie of the Year Award. He played in three Pro Bowls, but basically went downhill from his rookie season and left as soon as he was eligible for free agency.
WR Curtis Conway, Southern California, 1993. The Bears drafted Conway ahead of OT Willie Roaf and RB Jerome Bettis.. Conway is one of only a few Bears receivers to notch a thousand-yard, 10-touchdown season, but most fans felt he never really lived up to his potential.
CB Walt Harris, Mississippi State, 1996. Chicago actually traded up to get Harris, who played journeyman ball and never seemed to realize his full talent. Harris left in free agency and made the Pro Bowl in 2006 after having a career year for the 49ers.
QB Rex Grossman, Florida, 2003. Though ridiculously maligned, Grossman's stats speak for themselves. He has a winning record as a starter, a Super Bowl on his resume, and turned in one of the top three statistical seasons in franchise history in 2006. Whether he returns with a new contract in 2008 remains to be seen.
TE Greg Olsen, Miami, 2007. Fans pestered Jerry Angelo to draft a tight end in 2005 and 2006, but Olsen looks like he was worth the wait. Considered a Top 15 talent by most scouts, Olsen dropped to the second-to-last pick in the round, then turned in a good rookie season. His standing could easily rise to the "Hit" level.

Disappointments
QB Jim Harbaugh, Michigan, 1987. The 1987 draft was perhaps the weakest in modern history, and in retrospect, Harbaugh was probably one of the better first-round picks. He played well enough to earn a hefty contract extension, then immediately slumped his way into an ignominious release. Strangely enough, Harbaugh enjoyed a magical season with the Colts late in his career, earning himself the nickname "Captain Comeback." The moniker didn't apply to his Bears career, where he is best remembered as the recipient of Mike Ditka's infamous Metrodome sideline meltdown.
OT Marc Colombo, Boston College, 2002. Jerry Angelo came to Chicago with a reputation for drafting linemen, and the team's fluke 13-win season in 2001 gave him a chance to chase one late in Round No. 1. Colombo was a big, non-athletic, "mean-spirited" tackle with a borderline first-round grade, and he didn't start until late in his rookie season. He immediately suffered a career-threatening knee injury, and then spent several years rehabbing. The Bears were eventually forced to cut him, an act that Colombo saw as a betrayal. The big ugly dude went on to start for the Dallas Cowboys, but few NFL observers would grade him as anything above the journeyman level. Had that freakish injury not occurred, Colombo might have been a decent right tackle in Chicago.
2006 trade down and out of the round. When WR Santonio Holmes went ahead of Chicago's No. 26 pick, Angelo traded down from the spot, picking up a No. 2 and a No. 3 from Buffalo. The two players acquired in that deal -- S Danieal Manning and DT Dusty Dvorcek -- are still developing players, but neither has proven himself as an NFL starter going into their third season. Both should be starters in 2008, and could improve this ranking. By contrast, Chicago's second pick in the second round -- WR/CB/KR/PR Devin Hester -- is now the team's undisputed star.

Busts
RT Stan Thomas, Texas, 1991. A massive mauler who looked more like a guard than a tackle, Thomas was supposedly "raw but mean" coming out of college. He was a disaster as a pro, heralding a era of mediocre offensive line play.
DE Alonzo Spellman, Ohio State, 1992. He was a physical monster, but Spellman lacked one key attribute: sanity. The guy was absolutely fucking nuts, and not in a good way.
RB Rashaan Salaam, Colorado, 1995. The Heisman Trophy winner rushed for 1,000 yards his rookie season, but fumbling and pot-smoking ruined his career almost immediately.
DE John Thierry, Alcorn State, 1994. You know the scouting insult, "Looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane?" It was based on this guy.
1997, First rounder traded for Rick Mirer. Mirer flashed a bright future his rookie season in Seattle, but his star faded rapidly. Dave Wannstadt figured all the Golden Domer needed was a change of scenery. Whoops.
RB Curtis Enis, Penn State, 1998. Other teams wanted the pick and were offering nice packages for it, but Mark Hadley refused to budge or consider moving down to take Fred Taylor. In a telling display of pig-headed douchebaggery, Hadley picked Enis, who instantly revealed himself to be a major headcase. A true disaster.
QB Cade McNown, UCLA, 1999. This is probably the Bears' worst pick of the modern era, and that's really saying something. Not only did the Bears trade down from the No. 6 pick (passing up on CB Champ Bailey in the process) to get McNown, they gave up their shot at Daunte Culpepper, too. Making matters worse, the front office talked about how much they preferred McNown to the other available QBs, praising his "readiness" for the pro game, gloating about how they thought they'd gotten be best of the 1999 QB class. Thing was, McNown was clearly a punk in college, lacked arm strength, and couldn't lead ants to sugar water. His selection not only set the franchise back three years, it also revealed the height of the organization's arrogance and ineptitude, paving the way for the hiring of Jerry Angelo.
WR David Terrell, Michigan, 2001. Selecting Urlacher in 2000 broke the Bears' unbroken string of stunning fuckups. Picking Terrell in 2001 put them right back on the short bus. Though considered something of a can't-miss prospect by scouts, Terrell didn't fit the Bears offensive scheme and could crack the starting lineup. Though he occasionally flirted with adequacy, Terrell was a massive failure as a player. How much of his trouble was the result of playing for bizarro offensive coordinators Gary Crowton and John Shoop? A goodly portion, no doubt.
DE Michael Haynes, Penn State, 2003. Angelo's decision to trade down from the No. 4 slot had a lot more to do with drafting QB Rex Grossman than it did anything else, which meant the team's first pick in the draft was sort of an afterthought from the get-go. Haynes was a likeable character who made a few memorable plays, but he underachieved in a major way and will always be remembered as That Guy We Drafted Instead of Troy Polamalu.
RB Cedric Benson, Texas, 2005. I will never forget how my joy at the selection of this talented back turned to revulsion and sick horror only minutes after the pick was announced. Benson sat down with an interviewer and proceeded to give one of the worst interviews in the history of draft day, revealing himself as a flaky, self-centered, overly dramatic head-case. He followed this up with a camp holdout, a wasted rookie season, and an injury. In his second season he lost his starting job, feuded with his teammates, played effectively in relief and got knocked out of the Super Bowl with an injury. Finally cleared as the full-time starter in Year No. 3, Benson struggled behind an ineffective offensive line and failed to do anything of substance with his opportunity, averaging a measly 3.4 yards per carry and scoring only four times before exiting with yet another injury. It is unlikely Benson will ever reach his potential in Chicago.

Which leads us to this chart:

1997
We Picked: Trade No. 6 pick for QB Rick Mirer
We could have picked: LT Walter Jones, the Seahawks All Pro, who they selected with our pick.

1998:
We picked: Curtis Enis
We could have picked: RB Fred Taylor, LB Keith Brooking, LB Takeo Spikes, WR Randy Moss, G Alan Faneca.

1999:
We picked: QB Cade McNown
We could have picked: OT John Tait.

2000:
We picked: MLB Brian Urlacher
We could have picked: Nailed it. We got the best player in the draft.

2001:
We picked: WR David Terrell
We could have picked: G Steve Hutchinson, NT Casey Hampton,

2002:
We picked: OT Marc Columbo
We could have picked: DE Kalimba Edwards

2003:
We picked: DE Michael Haynes, QB Rex Grossman
We could have picked: S Troy Polamalu

2004:
We picked: DT Tommie Harris
We could have picked: DT Tommie Harris

2005
We picked: RB Cedric Benson
We could have picked: DE Shawn Merriman

Giving us this lineup in 2007...

LT Walter Jones
LG Steve Hutchinson
C Olin Kruetz
RG Roberto Garza
RT John Tait
TE Greg Olsen
WR Bernard Berrian
WR Muhsin Muhammad
FB Jason McKie
RB Fred Taylor

DE Shawn Merriman
DT Tommie Harris
DT Dusty Dvorcek
DE Wale Ugunleye
LB Hunter Hillenmeyer
MLB Brian Urlacher
LB Lance Briggs
CB Charles Tillman
CB Nathan Vasher
S Troy Polamalu
S Mike Brown

End of the road; Start of another one

2007-12-30T15:32:00.001-08:00

For Bears fans, 2007 was just a complete washout, an out-of-gas continuation of 2006, and that means we start a new chapter in 2008. Beating the Packers and the Saints to closed things out on a high note, and I have to admit that I don't feel entirely depressed about our chances next year.

QB
I was convinced that Rex Grossman was gone until injury gave him another chance. I understand that all it takes is one QB hungry team (Carolina?) to take him away as a UFA, but I hope the Bears make a run at him. I'd like to see an open competition for the slot at camp and it would make me happy if Rex progressed and took the job. The more likely situation, however, is that Rex leaves, some other team overpays for Derek Anderson, and we come into camp with Kyle Orton, Brian Griese and someone from the draft. Which means the Bears 2008 season could depend on Orton's progress in the offseason.

I don't like the guys who are listed as 1st round QBs. Joe Flacco, anyone?

RB
Cedric Benson is a bust and Adrian Peterson is a decent backup and special-teams player. Garrett Wolfe has looked OK, but he doesn't jump off the screen at you. In other words, we need a halfback. I'd like to see them target Michael Turner, who looks like a perfect fit for our offense. In fact, I'd pursue two free agents at midnight on the opening of the FA period, and one of them is Turner, a hometown guy.

One more thing. I'm not a fan of Jason McKie. He's a journeyman who is OK as a receiver and runner, but doesn't dominate as a lead blocker. Let's get somebody with some power who can spring someone for some decent gains. Owen Schmidt?

WR
Our wideout didn't really progress this year, and that makes the situation tough to evaluate. Bernard Berrian is our best wideout at the moment, but that isn't saying much. The drops this year were just ridiculous.

So here's my approach: Offer Berrian a good deal, but don't overpay. When he departs, turn to Moose and tell him he's got to renegotiate that contract if he wants to stick around. Look around the free agent market and see if you can get a guy like Patrick Crayton Andre Davis or Jerry Porter. If you can keep Mark Bradley for cheap, do it; if not, say goodbye.

But the key to all of this is Devin Hester. People forget that Steve Smith was originally "just a kick returner." I think Hester can be a three-down player and a starter. He's our best weapon, so why not spend the offseason getting him ready to be the focus of the offense? Coach him up!

TE
This might be our best position group, although Desmond Clark had some inconsistent dropsies. Greg Olsen, on the other hand, is a STUD.

OT
Big John Tait has some tread left on his tires, but he's not a star. Let's say goodbye to Fred Miller, move Tait to right tackle, and get some who can handle the blindside protector position. My preference is to use our first-round pick for a left tackle, but the option is that we go out and acquire Travelle Wharton in free agency. Personally, I'd rather save the money and target a different free agent lineman. John St. Clair is a good backup.

OG
Bye-bye Reuben Brown, Terrance Metcalf and, as far as I'm concerned, Roberto Garza. Brown was the only guard who was worth a damn this year. Maybe Josh Beekman will be something -- he didn't play, so who knows? -- but PLEASE don't let Metcalf get anywhere near Halas Hall in the off-season. We wasted six years on this stiff. CUT HIM! CUT HIM NOW!!!

So how about this: Let's make a big-money run at LG Alan Faneca. Then we'll take our draft picks and be sure to take some guard prospects to challenge Garza's ineffectual ass.

C
Olin Kreutz is smart and tough, but he's not dominant anymore. I figure he's still got some years ahead as a competent player, but he's someone who needs some powerful guard support if he's going to key a dynamic running game.

Can Beekman play center? That might be his best chance with this team: Being versatile, backing up, developing as a center.

DEFENSE

DT
OK, Dusty Dvorchek isn't a household name, but he was supposed to be a big part of our season and we lost him Week 1. I expect Dvorchek, Tommy Harris and a supporting cast to put together a solid 2008 season. We'll be OK in the middle, methinks, with one star and several solid players.

DE
We're over-manned here. Wale Ugunleye and Alex Brown are our best players, and Israel Idonije is a lock to get a roster spot (or should be). You've got to make room for Mark Anderson (who may just be a spot player), plus red-shirt freshman Dan Bauzin. We don't know what he can do. Anyway, short version: Don't draft a DE.

OLB
The guy I really wanted the Bears to draft in 2007 was Patrick Willis, who would have been there had we swapped Briggs for the Redskins' No. 6. But whatever: We'll replace Briggs with Jamar Williams and get a real look at 2007 third-round pick Michael Okwo. Hunter Hillenmeyer is still in the mix, and Brian Urlacher made a statement in December with some huge performances.

But let's get serious about something for a moment: Neither Williams nor Okwo is going to be Briggs in 2008... but Urlacher might be. Translation: Can we experiment a bit and see what kind of linebacker arrangement puts us in the most productive combination? Because Urlacher is a great weakside linebacker playing in the middle.

I'm not opposed to drafting a middle linebacker this year, but it's not a requirement. Basically, we need Williams to progress, and we need to see if Okwo can play.

CB
This one is simple: We suffered without Nathan Vasher in the lineup and we'll be better when he's healthy for 2008. Vasher and Peanut Tillman are locked up, along with Ricky Manning Jr., and Corey Graham/Trumane McBride provide decent, cheap depth. Leave this alone.

Safeties
Make Mike Brown an offer: Low salary, short term, lots of incentives for playing time. If he takes it, install him at free safety. If he doesn't, let him go with appreciation and class. After that, don't assume that we've got a second starting safety on the roster. Let Danieal Manning and Kevin Payne compete, but don't count on either being more than a backup. Look for safeties in the draft, in free agency.

It would be great if Manning, a second-round pick, stepped up and became a player. It would be great if Payne, who had an impressive camp, proves he was worth getting rid of Chris Harris last summer.

But let's get aggressive about safety. And that starts by cutting Adam Archuleta.

Specialists
Patrick Mannelly is one of the all-time great long-snappers and he looks like he could go forever. Brad Maynard is a veteran kicker. Keep him. And Robbie Gould, despite his spindly leg, is an excellent clutch field goal kicker. Getting a new halfback would move Adrian Peterson back into a meaningful coverage role. Yes, we'll lose Brandon Ayanbedajo. Life sucks like that. Invest in finding his replacement via the draft. Devin Hester is one of our greatest players since Walter Payton.

FREE AGENT PRIORITIES

1. Pursue Michael Turner and Alan Faneca with big-money contracts.

2. Investigate the availability of Derek Anderson, but don't overpay for him.

3. Try to re-sign Rex Grossman and Bernard Berrian, but not at crazy prices.

4. If Berrian leaves, consider signing a veteran free agent WR.

5. If it's unlikely we'll get a quality left tackle at our first-round position in April, then pursue Travelle Wharton.

DRAFT PRIORITIES

Round 1: Offensive left tackle.

Round 2 - 3: Quarterback, guard, safety

Round 4-5: Fullback, linebacker,

Round 6-7: Safety, safety, safety

2007 Bears Draft

2007-04-30T05:45:00.000-07:00

About a week ago I wrote up what I wanted from the Bears on draft day(s). Here's how things turned out...

TRADE LANCE BRIGGS: ... the rules are a mess and he's not going to contribute and I'm much more interested in winning a Super Bowl, thank you. I'd take Washington's No. 6 pick and Rocky McIntosh for Briggs and our No. 31, but I'd also take Denver's No. 21 pick, straight up, and just go from there.

OK, so Briggs stayed with us. And maybe we'll crack through this situation and get Briggs signed for a Super Bowl run in 2007. Whatever. This is just one of those situations where management needs to handle things with vision and integrity to prevent a contract issue from becoming a locker room problem. Something -- and I'm not sure what that something was -- made me more optimistic this weekend on the prospects of getting Briggs signed to a long-term deal.

DRAFT OFFENSIVE LINEMEN: If we stick around in the 30s, remember these names: Blaylock, Grubbs, Sears and Staley. Any one of those would make me happy at 31 or 37.

As it turned out, Grubbs and Staley were all gone by 31 and Sears went at 35. Blaylock would have been a solid pickup at 37 (he went 39), but the Bears apparently liked their chances better in the move-down with San Diego. I agree.

Blaylock was probably the least promising prospect in that second tier of four or five offensive linemen the experts kept talking about. Instead we wound up with Josh Beekman in the 4th round, and there's every reason to be as optimistic about Beekman as there was about Blaylock. Neither was a lock to be a starter, but Beekman has the traits you want in an NFL lineman. I'm optimistic.

We also picked up Arron Brant, a right tackle out of Iowa State, with our final pick. Nobody seems to know anything about him right now, but he's big and bald and that's got to count for something.

Bottom line: This team still needs some big-time young tackles, but they weren't there at 31. Kudos to the Bears for not reaching for one.

WAIT ON THE OLBS: This isn't a great top-end linebacker class, and drafting one with the first or second pick might be a reach. Waiting to draft a developmental project (like Briggs) in the 3rd or 4th round would make more sense.

Boy, did this one work out (on paper, anyway). I did experience a moment of excitement early in the second round when it looked like Paul Posluzny might drop to us, but once he was gone I relaxed again and hoped that we'd wind up with Quincy Black in the third or fourth round. Tampa nabbed him early in the 3rd, but c'est la vie. I'd rather have our second-round pick -- DE Daniel Bazuin, about whom I have a really good feeling -- than Black.

Winding up with Michael Okwo in the 3rd round is exactly the kind of personnel situation I'd been hoping for. If Briggs comes back, Okwo gives us an underrated guy who was productive in college and comes with the right intangibles. Here's the thing about linebackers, guards and safeties: athleticism and size are nice to have, but instincts and intelligence are often a lot more important.

If Briggs sits out training camp, Okwo will get a chance to compete for the starting weakside position. Not bad for the late third round.

AVOID THE WIDE RECEIVERS: Everybody seems to think that the Bears need to draft another wide receiver high. Stop the madness. Berrian, Bradley, Davis and Moose are not the problem. Throwing another player into that mix doesn't advance us as a team... unless that player is Calvin Johnson. Which it won't be.

This draft had Johnson and about a million wide receivers I've never heard of. There's a chance that one of them is the next Marques Colston, but I wouldn't bet on it. Good job of not doing the wrong thing, Jerry.

DON'T PANIC ON TIGHT ENDS: The only TE with a margin first round grade is Olsen of Miami, and he's going to go too high anyway. Look for receiving tight ends with good athletic abilities late.

I didn't seriously think that Olsen was going to drop to the end of the round, and I don't think most of the experts did, either. But once Carolina decided to draft for need with OLB Jon Beason at 25, the way was paved for Olsen to fall into our waiting arms. Here's another thing that played out in our favor: Joe Horn leaving New Orleans meant that the Saints needed a WR to fill that spot at 27.

With the Saints out of the way, the next three teams were all teams with tight end studs, and one of them (New England) traded away the 28th pick to a team that just drafted a TE at No. 6 in 2006.

I think we'll get quite a bit out of this pick -- provided we can get him signed.

DRAFT A SCAT BACK: Benson is a full-service back with a strong suit in strength, not open-field speed. Peterson is a bowling ball. Complete the set with a smaller back who can break the long run and get lost in traffic.

Garrett Wolfe was the guy I had in mind when I wrote those words, but I didn't want to jinx it. When I look at him I don't see a guy who is too small, or Leon Washington, or even Warrick Dunn. I see visions of Dennis Gentry, one of the most underrated members of the dynasty Bears from the 1980s.

Wolfe will be a productive and extremely popular player in Chicago for the next five years. He may not own an elite 40 time, (neither did Devin Hester for that matter) but he's magic in the open field and can dart around between the tackles if used properly.

WHAT ABOUT THE DRAFT AS A WHOLE? Olsen was a gift, and the only guy I would have preferred above him in that late-round group (Staley) went at 28. Bazuin wasn't a need pick at all (he actually creates a traffic jam at DE), but I've got a great feeling about him as a player. Wolfe, Okwo and Beekman all look like contributors.

The second day is harder to judge, but I like the sound of a safety whose last name is Payne. Corey Graham looks like a project and I don't expect much there. That last guy -- Brant -- is just an unknown.

I grade the whole thing a B, and the only reason I've got it down from an A is that the Briggs situation remains unresolved. Settle that and I'll be one happy fan.

Draft, Briggs, etc.

2007-04-25T06:24:00.000-07:00

Dear Mr. Angelo:

All I want from the 2007 NFL Draft is:

TRADE LANCE BRIGGS: Yes, the guy can play. Yes, you're within your rights under the rules to keep him. But the rules are a mess and he's not going to contribute and I'm much more interested in winning a Super Bowl, thank you. I'd take Washington's No. 6 pick and Rocky McIntosh for Briggs and our No. 31, but I'd also take Denver's No. 21 pick, straight up, and just go from there.

DRAFT OFFENSIVE LINEMEN: Let's say we're at No. 6. There will be a guy named Levi Brown sitting there. And guess what? If you can get from No. 6 to No. 5, there's a left tackle named Joe Thomas who might be very interesting. If we stick around in the 30s, remember these names: Blaylock, Grubbs, Sears and Staley. Any one of those would make me happy at 31 or 37.

WAIT ON THE OLBS: This isn't a great top-end linebacker class, and drafting one with the first or second pick might be a reach. Waiting to draft a developmental project (like Briggs) in the 3rd or 4th round would make more sense.

AVOID THE WIDE RECEIVERS: Everybody seems to think that the Bears need to draft another wide receiver high. Stop the madness. Berrian, Bradley, Davis and Moose are not the problem. Throwing another player into that mix doesn't advance us as a team... unless that player is Calvin Johnson. Which it won't be.

DON'T PANIC ON TIGHT ENDS: The only TE with a margin first round grade is Olsen of Miami, and he's going to go too high anyway. Look for receiving tight ends with good athletic abilities late.

DRAFT A SCAT BACK: Benson is a full-service back with a strong suit in strength, not open-field speed. Peterson is a bowling ball. Complete the set with a smaller back who can break the long run and get lost in traffic.

OFF-SEASON REPORT: Bears, Briggs, bucks and blockers

2007-03-30T05:41:00.000-07:00

OUR STORY SO FAR: With the team's heavy 2008 off-season agenda well in Jerry Angelo's mind, the Bears sat out 2007's early, big-bucks free agency period. Angelo then made three budget-wise moves, acquiring discounted safety Adam Archeleta from Washington for a 6th rounder, re-signing veteran LG Reuben Brown and adding free agent DT Anthony Adams. Meanwhile, the franchising of WLB Lance Briggs turned into a Midway freak show, with Briggs and his agent threatening all manner of retribution on the team and -- eventually -- brokering a significant offer from the Redskins for the disgruntled Pro Bowler. And in the background, two quiet stirrings about significant changes on the horizon: Whispers about Devin Hester on offense and Danieal Manning at corner...

WHY DOES 2008 MATTER? Because several key Bears will have to be signed to extensions before the end of the 2007 season. Decisions are due on Rex Grossman, Charles Tillman and Nathan Vasher, and there are other players (Tommie Harris and Bernard Berrian come to mind) who probably should get long-term offers sooner rather than later.

WHY THEY FRANCHISED BRIGGS: Briggs is a better-than-good player who came up big in some key situations (remember that 4th-down stop in the 4th quarter against the Seahawks?), but he may not be the great player he considers himself to be. Is he one of the league's top five linebackers? Nope, and the Bears know it. And here's the other thing: Beyond the salary cap issues of giving Briggs more than $33 million (with something like $16 million guaranteed) over seven years, there's the Urlacher Factor. Chicago's best linebacker isn't even in the Top 5 when it comes to linebacker salaries. He's No. 8. Does anybody out there think it makes much sense to pay another Bears linebacker more than Urlacher gets?

WHAT DO THE BEARS NEED IN 2007? Acquiring Archeleta and Adams -- a 4-3 tackle who was useless in the 49ers' 3-4 system -- took two of the team's injury issues out of the "Screaming Need" category. Chicago let a lot of quality backup talent leave their safety and defensive tackle ranks this off-season, and with question marks surrounding starters Mike Brown, Tommie Harris and Tank Johnson, they needed some veteran bodies.

Beyond that, Angelo needs to shore up an aging offensive line and find starter-quality contributors for the linebacking corps. Chicago needs depth at safety, depth at running back, and apparently a never-ending supply of defensive tackles who can collapse the pocket in Smith's signature defensive alignment.

WHY THE BEARS SHOULD DEAL BRIGGS TO THE REDSKINS: This isn't about ego, or who "wins" in the off-season. Chicago turned college-underachiver Briggs into an NFL star and now for various reasons can't realistically afford to pay the inflated market value to secure his services long-term. With the over-eager Redskins ready to over-pay for him, Angelo is in a position to get value out of the linebacker instead of merely a Pyhrric victory.

But Washington's initial offer -- while serious -- doesn't really serve the Bears' interests. With nothing in the cupboard to replace Briggs and no great linebacker options in either free agency or the top of the draft, Angelo would almost be forced to trade down from Washington's No. 6 slot and use a high pick on someone who could challenge the team's current backups for Briggs' spot.

Given the "value" assigned to picks (No. 6 = 1,600 points; No. 31 = 600), the difference in the swap equals the 16th pick in the draft. Not bad, but not quite what you'd expect for a three-time Pro Bowler in the prime of his career. So how do you even this deal out?

As Pat Kirwan wisely surmised, the solution is for Washington to include the player who would move to the bench to make room for Briggs: 6th year pro Lemar Marshall, an underrated player who notched 202 tackles in the past two seasons.

Everybody wins. Marshall becomes the Bears' new WLB. Washington gets his salary off their books and solves a potential lockerroom problem. And most importantly, Chicago gets to do what you want to do with the No. 6 pick overall: Draft a player who immediately improves your team.

WHAT TO DO WITH THE NO. 6 PICK: Drafting a player who improves your team right away isn't the same thing as drafting the best player available. In Chicago's case, that means going after a player with the ability to start in Week 1 and lock down a position for the better part of a decade. My nomination is Levi Brown, a 6-4, 328-pound left tackle from Penn State.

Brown isn't the best left tackle prospect this year (Joe Thomas, a consensus Top 5 pick, is), but most experts have him off the board in the Top 10. He had a down 2006 because of a knee injury, but it was a meniscus tear, not an ACL. If anything the guy is a value at the top of this draft, with analysts describing him as a future Pro Bowler.

Since Brown isn't generally considered a Top 6 pick, the Bears could be in position to trade down a spot or two if a team wants to move up and get QB Brady Quinn.

Acquiring a player like Brown would give Chicago the opportunity to improve two positions. Put Brown at his natural left tackle position and move Big John Tait to his natural position on the right.

Remember: The Bears want to be a run-first team, and for all their craftiness as pass blockers, Chicago's O-line was weak when it came to mauling other teams in straight-ahead short yardage. Their best short-yardage play in 2006? Pulling Reuben Brown to the right. Everybody knew it, and that's not good.

The question I have is, if Joe Thomas is there at No. 5, should Chicago attempt to move up and get him?

WHAT ELSE SHOULD CHICAGO DO? Well, for starters, Roberto Garza has been a disappointment at right guard, and backup Terrance Metcalf has been unable to step up and claim the position. Chicago picks again at No. 37 (thanks to the Thomas Jones trade), and if one of the Top 3 guards is still on the board (quite possible), I'd rather see the Bears pick one of them than chase the uninspiring linebackers who are expected to be hanging around early in the second.

Draft a linebacker or two, but do it later. And make sure to look for a game-changing "third-down back" on Day 2. Someone, like, say... Garrett Wolfe of Northern Illinois.

WHAT ABOUT QUARTERBACK? Oh, shut-up already. Quarterback is the one position where we're actual stable, healthy and deep, with a great mixture of proven ability and potential.

Bears on the Bubble

2007-02-20T19:25:00.000-08:00

Mark Anderson: He starred as a rookie playmaker. In his second year, he'll need to contend for a starting spot and extended playing time. Does he have the ability to supplant either Ugunleye or Brown at defensive end? Or will he continue to contribute as a sub?

Cedric Benson: An injured shoulder in training camp recast his role as Option B, and after he regained his health, Benson flashed signs of power-back brilliance. But the No. 4 pick overall is expected to be more than just a strong second option. Can he continue to improve in Chicago's two-back rotation?

Mark Bradley: After demonstrating special talent in his injury-shortened rookie season, Bradley's sophomore campaign was frustrating and confusing. On the one hand, he got only 14 catches. On the other, he averaged 20 yards per catch and scored three times. If he can get back on track, the Bears have a potential pair of bookends in Bradley and Berrian. So mark 2007 as a watershed year for Bradley. If he catches on, then he'll replace Muhammad in 2008. If he doesn't, the front office won't wait for him.

Lance Briggs: That franchise tag keeps Briggs with the Bears for another season, but you have to wonder why they didn't just pay him and get him locked down under a long-term deal. Franchised players are always worth watching, because they can respond to the tag in odd ways.

Alex Brown: See Mark Anderson. Brown is a good player, but he isn't a true star at DE. Does he deserve to be the guy who gets to pressure the QB's blind side?

Mike Brown: A fan favorite. A smart guy. The No. 2 pick behind Urlacher in 2000. But can he come back from injury again and be all that he was? Can the team still plan around him? Brown has never gotten by on measureables, so this looks like a tough call in the offseason.

Ruben Brown: He's had a 13-year Hall of Fame career, and finished 2007 stronger than he started it, but will the Bears bring him back with a new contract? It depends on what's available out there (Hello, Eric Steinbach), but Angelo shouldn't expect that other teams will wait around for him to make up his mind. Brown is a legit left guard with at least another season in him.

Dez Clark: After three journeyman seasons with the Bears, Clark had the best year of his pro career in 2006. Yet everyone expects that Angelo will target a young tight end in the draft. My gut feeling is that Clark is one of the most under-rated players on the team, as his clutch catches and overlooked downfield blocking demonstrated. The Bears will add a tight end in April, but Clark will probably retain his starting job.

Dusty Dvoracek: Tommie Harris' college roommate impressed observers in mini-camps but broke down in training camp and spent his rookie year on IR. With the turmoil on the defensive line, Dvoracek remains an interesting option. But is he the real thing, or just a mirage?

Rex Grossman: If the Bears had played a normal season in 2006, lots of people might be talking about the progress demonstrated by this young quarterback. How he shook off two years of injury and rehab. How he was the league's offensive player for the month of September. How he became only the fifth Bear QB to throw for 3,000 yards in a season. Instead, he's mocked as the worst quarterback in Super Bowl history. How will he react to the way he's been treated in Chicago? Grossman could be good or bad in 2007, and I simply can't predict.

Tommie Harris: Two questions: Can he come back 100 percent from this freaky hamstring injury, and what happened to his production in the month prior to his injury?

Tank Johnson: For all his notoriety, Tank was just an OK player in 2006, and after all that sturm und drang, he's an RFA. Is he a better than average DT, or just another plug-in component?

Danieal Manning: Most years, the Bears' top draft choice would get lots of attention if he started 16 games. Danieal Manning was an afterthought behind Devin Hester and Mark Anderson. The question: Did Manning play because he was that good, or because nobody else was? He has incredible gifts, but he got blown up on some big plays all year, leaving a mixed impression. We know he's good. But can he be a franchise star?

Ricky Manning Jr.: The good news is that RMJ notched seven interceptions despite playing only as a nickel back. The bad news is that when we traded for him last year, we never got around to re-doing his contract. Now he's a UFA, and cornerbacks with his skills are hard to find. Keeping Manning for a second year is going to be expensive, but it's a must-do.

Fred Miller: He's almost the prototypical veteran at right tackle -- an aging player with average gifts and superb toughness who has made a career out of getting it right more often than not. He's physical and smart, but he just wasn't the kind of player who consistently delivered a big push on running plays. The thing with Miller is, he's only the second-best right tackle on the team (left tackle John Tait is playing out of position). If the Bears sign a right tackle, Miller faces competition. If the Bears sign a left tackle, ditto.

Adewale Ongunleye: When the Bears dealt for him, he looked like he might become a great defensive end. Now he merely looks like a good one. The Bears have three good DEs. Can one of them become great?

Ian Scott: Scott is a quality prospect at defensive tackle, and intelligent too. But will the Bears invest in him or will he move on as a UFA?

John Tait: Big John is in decent shape for a 32-year-old tackle, but he's really only adequate as a blindside pass blocker. Though he's played the left for two years because that's where the team needed him, he knows his best position is on the right. Will this be the year the Bears make a move for a big left tackle and move Tait to his natural spot?

Top Free Agent possibilities
LT Leonard Davis. A famous underachiever in Arizona, Davis is the former No. 2 overall pick in 2001. At 6-6, 365 pounds, "Big" is even big by NFL standards, and he's no slouch as an athlete. That said, he's as memorable for his false-start penalties as he is for his road-grader blocking style. In other words, he's the best tackle on the market and stands to cash in big on his potential... even if his performance suggests a smaller sum. But you don't have to go very far (Hello, Thomas Jones) to find former Cardinals whose careers improved as soon as they got away from Bill Bidwell. Does the Bears coaching staff have what it takes to get the goods out of this guy?

LG Eric Steinbach. The Bengals' guard is athletic and skilled and could even play tackle. But he's listed at less than 300 pounds and appears to be a notch below the elite level... which is probably why the Bengals are willing to let him go.

As expensive as these two might be, the Bears are expected to be about $27 million under the salary cap. That's probably enough to sign both these guys... particularly if they're not able to resign Ricky Manning Jr. And since both Davis and Steinbach are young players entering the prime of life for offensive linemen, even a big investment could pay off longterm dividends.

Imagine this line: Davis, Steinbach, Kreutz, Garcia and Tait. That's not just a moderate improvement -- that's a transformative event for the offense, upgrading three positions with two signings.

Bears draft needs
It's crazy to do this before the free agent signing period opens, but assuming the team signs at least one offensive lineman immediately, this is what we're looking at as our shopping list for 2007:

First-day developmental OL prospect
Cornerback (assuming Ricky Manning Jr. leaves town)
Linebacker
Tight end
Safety
Defensive tackle
Another linebacker

2007 Bears: After the flood

2007-02-20T06:10:00.000-08:00

OK, so back in August I was more right than wrong, but... Geez, was I wrong. I predicted the Bears would beat the Colts in the Super Bowl. I predicted it in August. I predicted it in February. I was still predicting it in the fourth quarter of that demoralizing loss.

But now that's over, the pain is fading, and the 2007 off-season is underway. So let's set the table for what should be an intriguing year.

COACHING: Job No. 1 for the front office is signing Coach Smith to a long-term deal, and it needs to be a respectable contract. Something just shy of the super-star money that gets paid to legends who come back from the TV booth, and heavy on stability. If we're lucky, we'll get a decade out of Lovie.

By the way, letting DC Ron Rivera go was a painful move, but a good one. Two words: Panthers, Colts. Babich should be an appropriate replacement. The second-most important coaching contract on this staff? Wade Wilson, quarterbacks coach. Keep him, because he's the most important person in Rex Grossman's world right now.

FRONT OFFICE: Jerry Angelo deserves a long-term contract too. He's got his coach. Pair their destinies.

QUARTERBACK: Never in my life have I seen a successful young quarterback take the media whipping that Rex Grossman received before, during and after the Super Bowl. This isn't just a conversational topic, either: As media and fans, we're on the verge of destroying the best quarterback the Bears have had since Eric Kramer. Grossman should face an open competition for the starting job in training camp, but Angelo should resist calls to bring in yet another veteran free agent. Let the three QBs on the roster duke it out for the top spot this summer, and don't be surprised when Grossman emerges as the starter and a Pro Bowl selection. I think he has the ability to be a better than average quarterback, and that's saying a lot for a Bears signal caller.

RUNNING BACK: Looks like we'll have another year of the Jones & Benson show, and that's fine by me. Two backs are better than one these days.

WIDE RECEIVER: Don't look now, but Muhsin Muhammad has been fading for the past two years. I'm not anxious to do anything about that -- he's still a contributor and a leader. But we need to find out whether Mark Bradley has the stuff to make it as an eventual starter. Bernard Berrian is a keeper, and if Bradley can match his progress, then the Bears will go into 2007 four-deep at the position.

TIGHT END: Desmond Clark had a good year, but there's no doubt that we need to address this position early in the draft.

OFFENSIVE LINE: Expect a veteran free agent signing and at least one first-day draft pick. O-Line is one of the most over-rated positions on the squad -- and the oldest. Eric Steinbach of the Bengals is an intriguing prospect (so long as we keep him at his natural guard position), and left tackle Leonard Davis of the Cardinals would allow John Tait to move back to right guard. This unit needs an upgrade and an injection of youth.

DEFENSIVE LINE: The pass rush went on hiatus in October and seldom reared its fearsome head after a hot early start. Take away rookie situational pass rusher Mark Anderson and this unit was downright weak when it came to pressure. Obviously the key here is Tommie Harris, but the D-line was actually playing quite average football before his injury. I'm not saying the defensive line is weak, but there are question marks here. My gut feeling? The D-Line played strong in September, but when offensive coordinators got good tape on them, they got gameplanned into spotty performances. Chicago got great success by moving Anderson around in obvious pass rushing situations, but for the most part, this line got neutralized. This is actually the place where Angelo will have to make some important decisions early, since Alfonso Boone and Ian Scott are both Unrestricted Free Agents who will garner interest around the league, while celebrity bad-boy Tank Johnson is an RFA.

LINEBACKER: With two premiere players, it's easy to identify the linebacking corps as a strength. I call it a need area. Hunter Hillenmeyer is a serviceable starter, once you get past him there's really nothing much to talk about. Chicago needs linebacker depth and can't afford to look at this position as just another place to stash special teams talent. Here's hoping the Bears hunt up a veteran free agent for depth and invest in more talent in the draft. One final, crazy thought: I'm not convinced that Brian Urlacher wouldn't be a better player at the weakside.

CORNERBACK: I'm very happy with this situation... or I should be. Chicago comes in with three legitimate corners, plus talented depth in Devin Hester. None of the Bears' CBs have that kind of Ty Law/Champ Bailey shut-down skill, but they're extremely talented within a Tampa Two. The problem: Nickel Ricky Manning Jr. is an unrestricted free agent, and a better CB than most teams have at starter. What happens if his price creates conflict with the contracts for Tillman and Vasher? Can we even keep him?

SAFETY: Here's a wild card. What's Mike Brown's future with the team? As far as I'm concerned, a Bears defense with Brown and Harris would have shut down Peyton Manning on some of those third downs (just look at what Bob Sanders meant for the Colts), but that's pie in the sky thinking. Can Brown make it back? Can he make it through a complete season? Manning was an overlooked contributor as a rookie starter, and Chris Harris is only in his second season, but neither is a proven star, and Todd Johnson looks like a big hitter without much else right now (he's also a restricted free agent).

PUNT/KICK COVERAGE & RETURN: I don't think there's a better group of special teamers in the league than the combo of Brendan Ayanbedejo, Adrian Peterson, Dante Wesley, Israel Idonije and Patrick Mannelly. They get after opponents, make good decisions and give the Bears a fantastic weapon. Even without Devin Hester, these guys are difference-makers. And Hester is a game-changing performer.

PUNTER: Brother Maynard doesn't put up gaudy stats. Who cares? He's a reliable, effective punter.

KICKER: Robbie Gould was merely a short-range option as a rookie. In his second-year, he turned in an All Pro kicker, despite not having a great leg for the long bombers. What will he become in is third season?

O. My. Gawd...

2006-10-02T10:10:00.000-07:00

If you witnessed last night's demolition of the NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks, you know what I'm talking about. Before last night the only knock I had on the Bears so far in 2006 was the quality of their opponents. Well, put that one to bed. They didn't just beat the Seahawks in Chicago -- they put on a clinic.

I was immediately reminded of a similar game in 1985. The 1984 Bears had gone to the playoffs, but still hadn't earned much national respect. Then about midway through the 1985 season, the eventual Super Bowl champions blew out the Cowboys 44-0. The game made the cover of Sports Illustrated that week, and the football world finally began to give them a little love. Within weeks, the Bears were media darlings.

John Madden opened the game with non-commital remarks about Bears QB Rex Grossman, basically telling the national TV audience that he was still in "show-me" mode about the NFL's Offensive Player of the Month for September. By the end of the third quarter Madden was making multiple comparisons between Grossman and the object of Madden's ultimate man-crush, future Hall of Famer Brett Favre.

The Bears are on their way to the kind of season I predicted back in training camp, but here's the part that's left me slack-jawed: As good as I thought they'd be, they're better. They're one of the two best teams in the NFL right now, and if they stay healthy, they'll keep getting better.

Hang on...

Preseason tizzies

2006-08-28T08:37:00.000-07:00

It would be an understatement to say that Rex Grossman has under-performed in the first three preseason games, just as it would be an overstatement to suggest that the Rex Grossman era is now over before it even began. You'd think that would be obvious to anyone with minimal football savvy, but you'd be wrong. Just ask columnist Rick Telander of the Sun-Times.

According to Telander, Grossman "has looked so inept at all phases of the game this preseason that you wonder not whether he can be a star, but how he made it to the Bears' roster."

Meanwhile, football analysts from across the country are picking up on the Grossman/Griese quarterback controversy, fanning the flames of what is, for now, a phony fire.

When I watch Grossman this preseason (and I've watched two of his three games), I see traits that I like and traits that I don't, but the traits I like I like quite a bit. I see a guy trying to get his groove on with a first-team unit that's shown less rhythm than a Baptist deacon at a 50 Cent concert. When I watch Griese, I watch a veteran at the top of his powers toying with second-stringers and backup players who won't make a 53-man roster next month. To compare the two performances is to miss the point entirely.

Grossman isn't a polished quarterback yet. He throws too many pickable passes. He gets excited and the ball sails on him. He's good at elevating the energy of the men around him, but he doesn't seem to be able to calm them down yet. He's aggressive and confident and charismatic.

His job this year is simple: Add a legitimate passing component to a run-based offense that's going to feature two former first-round picks at halfback. Between the two of them, those backs have a combined 4 yards rushing this preseason -- and you're telling me QUARTERBACK is the problem?

Once the games start counting, once the players who COULD play DO play, you're going to see a very different kind of game from Grossman. A typical stat-line for 2006: 13 of 24 for 200 yards, an INT and a touchdown, with a sack and couple of short runs. That's enough to put the Bears in the home field advantage hunt.

What's Griese? A top-level backup who could do very similar things, only with a slightly higher completion percentage. So why does Rex have the inside track?

Because we know what Griese is, and what he isn't. He is a good -- not great -- NFL quarterback who lacks the charisma and intangibles that the top field generals possess. He appears to have mellowed and perhaps matured, but Griese is just a step above journeyman quality, and he isn't likely to improve on that status.

Taken solely in the context of 2006, Grossman and Griese are about equal, as are Benson and Jones.

Taken in the context of the future of the franchise, Grossman MUST be given every opportunity early this season. Same with Benson.

If these two young, homegrown prospects fail to get the job done in September, then by mid-October you can expect to see Griese and Jones taking over. The rest of this team is prepared to make a Super Bowl run this year, and you won't see Lovie Smith squander that opportunity if Grossman and Benson clearly aren't the best options by the time the trees start changing color.

But to bench them now is beyond stupid. It's stuped.

Grossman and Benson were drafted and groomed to be the future of this offensive unit. If they're not going to be the answer, we need to know that this year. That simple.

And if they turn out to be solid NFL starters, as I suspect they will, then the Telanders of the world are going to be looking kind of silly.

The Bears are the best team in football, and no, I am not smoking crack

2006-08-01T13:27:00.000-07:00

I'm a partisan when it comes to the Chicago Bears, which traditionally makes me a poor prognosticator. I typically think they're going to be better than they are.

Not this year.

Here are 16 reasons why the Chicago Bears will finish with the best record in the NFL in 2006 and will win Super Bowl XLI come February 2007:

16. The easiest schedule in the NFL (.445 winning percentage), and the easiest graded schedule against run defenses in the league.

It gets better. Six of the team's games are against NFC North opponents, each of which are in the first year of new coaching eras. Other teams with first-year coaches on this year's schedule include Buffalo, St. Louis and the New York Jets. Plus, the team opens and closes with division opponents Green Bay and Detroit. No way the Bears treat their Dec. 31 game against the Packers at Soldier Field as a pre-playoff bye-week.

Chicago will sweep its division this year. Its biggest challenge from October on will be remaining focused and beating Carolina to the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

15. Coaching continuity. Only one member of the coaching staff departed in the off-season, giving everyone in the organization a well-needed shot of ordinariness. This is particularly meaningful at the coordinator level, where Ron Rivera enters what will be his last season as an assistant and Ron Turner gets a second year running the offense.

14. Everybody is signed. Sure, a hold-out first round rookie is still valuable, but look at what happened to Benson after he missed 2005 training camp: minimal utility, poor relationships, frustration and -- ultimately -- injury. To get the most out of your rookies, your rookies must be signed and practicing. No team wrapped up its rookie contact situation faster than Chicago this year. Trading down out of the first round is looking like a pretty good move (DISCLOSURE: I didn't think so at the time).

13. The best defense in football just got better. Only a lay-down game against the Vikings in Week 17 last year prevented the Bears from earning the statistical title of "best defense in the league," and in 2006 the unit will run away with that title. While the defense returned all 11 of its starters, the thing to watch this offseason is the development of 2nd round safety Danieal Manning. One of the early stars of training camp, Manning appears ready to challenge for Chris Harris' starting spot, and even if he doesn't win it outright, expect to see him earn significant playing time.

In fact, the entire defensive backfield -- a good group in 2005 -- appears to be significantly upgraded. Chicago has three legitimate cornerbacks in Nathan Vasher, Peanut Tillman and restricted free agent signing Ricky Manning Jr., but veteran pickup Dante Wesley is playing well enough to get a second look as a frontline player. That's without even talking about rookie Devin Hester, who shows talent but is probably a developmental project.

If this unit has a weakness it's linebacker depth and the SAM position, where Hunter Hillenmeyer is a solid journeyman on a team of blue chippers. Between its freakishly deep backfield, its all-world middle linebacker and its pressure-first defensive line, this group looks like a lock to lead the league in takeaways.

12. The worst unit on the team has been upgraded -- and no, we're not talking about the offense. Chicago's special teams in 2005 were a disaster, and the team made smart moves in the offseason to turn that around. In addition to bringing back special teams stars Brendan Ayanbedejo and Adrian Peterson, Jerry Angelo brought in Carolina Panthers special teamer Dante Wesley and drafted returners Danieal Manning and Devin Hester in the second round. Punt return fumbles cost the team at least one victory last year, and with Jerry Azumah sidelined with a career-ending injury, the already-struggling offense seldom started with a short field. Hester's ability to cleanly field punts will be a boost, and if he begins to flash the gamebreaking ability he showed in college, field position will improve immediately. The team has a veteran punter and longsnapper, and if it has a glaring weakness it's at place kicker. Robbie Gould was a reliable short-range option when called upon last year, but he has a weak leg and Smith lacked confidence in his ability to convert kicks from beyond 40 yards.

11. Cedric Benson is the right back for the Turner offense. I've been a Thomas Jones fan since before he arrived in Chicago, contending for years that Jones was a star waiting for the right situation. Brought in to be the feature back in Terry Shea's version of the "Greatest Show on Turf" in 2004, I thought he'd found that perfect fit. Wrong. Every QB on the team got hurt, and it didn't help that Shea turned out to be a freakazoid, but despite the meltdown, Jones finally had a good year. In 2005, Jones demonstrated elite skills in yet another hamstrung offense, breaking more long runs and grinding up more yardage than any Bear back since Walter Payton. And yet it was obvious that Jones is far better suited for a different kind of offensive playbook.

Benson is really no larger than No. 20, and he lacks Jones' breakaway speed. Yet watching him run at training camp you can almost sense the Turner offense coallescing around him. While Jones could be a tough inside runner with a high pain threshold, Benson seems to thrive on contact. Jones wanted the corner; Benson lowers his shoulder. Jones is a home run hitter who would thrive in a wide-open scheme. Benson is a franchise halfback perfectly suited for a team based around a great defense.

10. Thomas Jones. If the Bears trade him, Jones can bring in talent to upgrade another position (Ashley Lelie isn't my favorite wide receiver, but his 19.3 ypc average would sure give Muhsin Muhammad room to operate). If the Bears keep him, Jones is either the best 2nd string running back in football or a prototype third-down guy. Having two top RBs is a luxury the Bears might not be able to afford, but if they can, imagine how strong the team will be in the fourth quarter defending a seven-point lead. Plus, Jones is a smart guy: Those Super Bowl bonuses are generous, and they don't look bad on a contract renegotiation sheet, either.

9. Drama. The Thomas Jones/Cedric Benson soap opera was inevitable this summer, but this situation simply could not have played out better for Benson or the team. Jones was a popular veteran in 2005 and Benson was a weird no-show rookie, but anybody who has ever spent any time around the NFL knows that the Bears needed the former No. 4 pick to step up and take the position this year. By sitting out the OTAs and succumbing to a stealth hammy on his first day of camp, Jones has given Benson the opportunity to confront his critics head-on -- literally -- on the practice field. Camp observers have noted extra pop in the hits delivered on and by Benson, who is having a solid camp against the best defense in football. With Jones standing silently on the sidelines, Benson is earning the respect of his teammates. Friendship and bonding? Let's not go that far. Both Benson and Jones seem to walk around with outsized chips on their shoulders, but an undercurrent of tension and drama animates great teams, just as too much of those qualities will tear lesser teams apart. Whether Jones remains or is traded, expect Benson to play 2006 like a personal statement.

8. Rusty Jones. The first year of the Lovie Smith era fell apart under a rash of injuries, but the 2006 Bears stayed remarkably healthy thanks to Strength and Conditioning coordinator Rusty Jones. Jones is the best in the business, and he's had two years to re-engineer the workouts of his veteran stars. Not only are players like Mike Brown and Brian Urlacher healthy and fit, they're doing exercises that should reduce their chance of on-the-field injuries. It's no coincidence that the one guy to pull a hamsting on Day 1 was Thomas Jones, a workout fanatic who wasn't at Halas Hall in the offseason, working under Rusty Jones' watchful eye.

7. Offensive cohesion. By most accountings, the Bears' offensive line is a mediocre group of guys who aren't getting any younger. Unlike other units on the team, this one wasn't built via the draft, and though it has been workmanlike, it hasn't exactly gelled. Yet by sticking together, this is a unit that can only improve. All of these guys are in their second or third years together now, and that kind of experience makes a big difference in your overall offensive performance.

The same can be said about the offense remaining under the same OC. Or the fact that all the wide receivers have been with the team for more than five minutes. But the No. 1 element in this year's offensive cohesion is the return of Rex Grossman and the signing of Brian Griese. Even if Grossman falls or falls short, Griese is similar enough in style and ability that the offense will remain largely the same. Kyle Orton's rookie campaign required editing the playbook and abandoning much of what Turner had hoped to accomplish with Grossman. That won't happen this year.

6. Minimal improvement in the passing game will pay huge dividends. As Orton's season wound down last year it was obvious that the rookie wasn't playing up to the standards he had set for himself in September and October. The Bears were unable to mount a consistant aerial threat, and all aspects of the offense bogged down.

But just improving third-down efficiency -- the most important passing statistic in my book -- would have far ranging effects. The Bears finished 31st in 3rd down percentage, converting less than 29 percent of their 215 attempts. That's more punts, more low-probability field goal attempts, worse field position, more fourth-down desperation.

Now, imagine what happens if the Bears move into the middle of the pack. Baltimore finished 16th in 3rd down conversion last season with a 39.1 percent rate. What if Chicago had matched that rate? Check it out: That's 22 additional first downs on top of the 62 we converted last year, and many of those drives will generate more first downs and 3rd down conversion attempts. Combine that with improved defense and special teams and you're talking about a team that will dominate the field position, time of possession and takeaway battles.

5. Moose's hand has healed. Nobody talked about it last season, but Muhsin Muhammad broke his hand in the Cincinnati game on Sept. 25, then broke it again in the playoffs. It was Muhammad's worst year ever in terms of drops (I think he was saddled with eight, officially), and that doesn't count the "uncatchable" balls that Muhammad used to go and snag for quarterbacks like Jake Delhomme, but just couldn't pull down for Kyle Orton. A healthy, happy Muhammad is a dangerous weapon.

4. The No. 2 wide reciever we don't have in 2006 is better than the No. 2 wide receiver we didn't have in 2005. Last year opened with prospect Justin Gage opposite Muhammad, second-year man Bernard Berrian still looking for playing experience and rookie Mark Bradley coming off an impressive pre-season. Hell, even Bobby Wade was in the mix. This year's training camp battle is between two speedsters, Berrian and Bradley, and both have proven their ability to stretch NFL defenses and make big plays. Even if the two Bs split the 2006 season at the second wideout, it's a better situation than we had last year. And remember: A trade for disgruntled big-play WR Ashley Lelie is not out of the question.

3. Lovie Smith learns. In his first season, Smith brought in unproven coaches and ran his players until their hamstrings popped like guitar strings. But when the season ended, Smith showed that he had learned something from the experience. He hired Rusty Jones, dumped Terry Shea, brought back Ron Turner and changed the way he ran his training camp and his football program. None of this looked all that dramatic to observers outside the organization, but the moves were effective. The amateur-hour days of 2004 are gone, replaced by adults and veterans in 2006. There is a sense this summer that Smith and Angelo are working off a common set of notes, that every action and move represents part of a larger plan. For the first time in forever, the Bears look professional.

2. The Carolina loss. Chicago lost at home to Carolina in the playoffs because the defense literally fell down on the job. Slips, stumbles and blown assignments gave the Panthers 21 points and forced the Bears to play from behind from the opening series. And yet... and yet the offense still managed to make a game of it, challenging a respectable Panthers defense, putting 21 points on the board and falling just short of a miraculous 4th quarter comeback.

In the offseason, Chicago concentrated on improving its defensive backfield -- no more coverage nightmares for these guys. It gained confidence in its offense, built some security at the quarterback position and filed away the experience for the future.

One could argue that the 2006 team is the 2005 team -- only it's been re-engineered to win games like the one it dropped to Carolina in January. The 2006 Bears won't feel like tourists in the playoffs. They belong, and they know what to do when they get there.

1. Rex Grossman. If you judge by the fantasy experts, Rex Grossman has all the appeal of week-old road kill. Fantasy Guru ranks him below such stars as Charlie Frye, J.P. Losman, Billy Volek, Philip Rivers, Brad Johnson, David Carr, Jon Kitna and Aaron Brooks. CBS Sportsline offers a slightly better picture, moving our man Rex up to No. 29 among quarterbacks. Clearly, the national pundits don't think that Grossman and the Bears offense are safe bets to put up competitive passing statistics.

They're dead wrong.

To understand the Grossman difference, flash back to this time last year, when Grossman and Muhammad were excited to be working out with each other, spending extra time outside of team activities building a special rapport. Grossman's broken ankle not only blew-up out the bulk of his season, it wiped clean months of progress and teamwork. Orton proved to be a gamer, but one never got the sense that the offense had any kind of chemistry or rythmn.

Now fast-forward to the Atlanta game: Chicago is clinging to a 6-3 lead when Grossman enters the game to thunderous applause in the third quarter. His first play from scrimmage, a 22-yard laser strike to Muhammad, is electrifying, a glimpse of what could have been. Grossman leads the team to two third quarter scores and the Bears go on to win 16-3. The following week, in his only regular-season start of 2005, Grossman notched an emotional victory at Green Bay.

In the playoff game against Carolina, the team spotted the Panthers a 13-point lead before Grossman led the Bears on touchdown drives of 67, 68 and 66 yards. His lone interception came late in the fourth, with time running out, as he moved the Bears toward a chance to tie the score with a two-point conversion.

Grossman is far from a polished QB. His passer rating is nothing to write home about. He tends to throw the same sorts of interceptions Brett Favre does and he lacks both Carson Palmer's pocket-passer size and Michael Vick's running threat wheels. Most importantly, he's been unable to stay on the field.

None of that matters, not in 2006. Grossman's injuries have been freakish, and there's no more reason to label him a health risk than there is to put that label on any NFL quarterback. When it comes to his talents, be prepared to watch them shine: Grossman is a nimble, aggressive, charismatic quarterback who makes plays and elevates the play of those around him. He is active in the pocket, makes quick decisions, avoids sacks and has a world-class release. His arm is more than adequate to the NFL game, and he has the single most important attribute of all great NFL quarterbacks: mental toughness.

It says here that Rex Grossman will start all 16 games for Chicago in 2006, generating middle-of-the pack statistics in a balanced offense. Expect 20 touchdown passes against 11 or 12 interceptions in the regular season, followed by an NFC championship victory at Soldier Field and a Super Bowl win over Indianapolis.

For the Bears to be great, the quarterback only has to be good. Rex Grossman will be good. I have a sneaking suspicion he may wind up being much better than good.

In August of 2006, we stand on the brink of the greatest Bears season since 1985. I recommend we all do our best to enjoy every single second of it. The planets have aligned, and it could be another 20 years since we see anything like this again.

Alternate reality

2006-04-29T20:32:00.000-07:00

So the Bears traded down from No. 26 ... drafted another defensive back named Manning... then picked a boom-or-bust athlete in search of a position... finished up the day by whiffing on the TE they probably needed to draft... and wound up adding a thug defensive lineman...

Let me sum this day up in two words:

Oi. Vey.

I graded it a D, which put me in the plurality. Twenty six percent of ChicagoSports readers graded Day One a D for Da Bears, nosing out the 25 percent who gave it a failing grade. In other words, more than 51 percent of Bears fans took one sniff of this 2006 draft class and smelled cheese.

Which made me think: What if Jerry Angelo, to whom I give big props for his 2004 and 2005 off-seasons, had sat tight at 26? What might the Bears have come away with?

Here's what I found:

"With the twenty-sixth pick in the 2006 NFL Draft, the Chicago Bears select Mercedes Lewis, tight end, UCLA... "

Athletic. Polished. A good receiver with "great ball skills." Not the extra guard the Bears seem to like at the position, but a modern TE for the modern game. Why is tight end production up so much around the league in the past two years? Because rules changes have enhanced the tight end's role in the passing game... at least at other teams.

But it was not to be. Lewis was selected 28th by the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Other possibilities: OLB DeMeco Ryans (Houston No. 33); WR Chad Jackson (New England, No. 36); and CB Jimmy Williams (Atlanta, No. 37).

"With the 57th pick in the 2006 NFL Draft, the Chicago Bears draft... Devin Hester? Cornerback? Wide receiver? Utility infielder? The University of Miami..."

Hey, let's get real here: I don't really know my ass from a hole in the ground when it comes to the individual talent comparisons out there. The only opinions I can offer are opinions about the strategy and tactics involved in drafting and building a roster. So no, this guy isn't on any of the experts draft lists, but I'm not going to say the kid can't develop into something.

And let's be blunt: The Bears may have "all 22 starters returning," but they don't have a legitimate return man on the roster. I don't buy the idea that your kick and punter returners have to contribute someplace else on the roster to be valuable, so if a guy like Hester can come in, break a couple long ones for scores and keep putting the Bears in good field position, then I'll call this a decent pick.

Other possibilities: OT Charles Spencer (Houston, No. 65); Eric Winston (Houston, No. 66); DE Chris Gocong (Philadelphia No. 71); TE Leonard Pope (Arizona, No. 72)...

So, what did we get for trading down?

Well, we didn't get a top tight end, one of only two starting positions on the team in need of an immediate upgrade (SAM OLB being the other), which is why I consider the trade down to have turned out questionably. Quality players at both positions were available at No. 26.

What we got instead was Danieal Manning, a safety out of Abilene Christian who also returns kicks. That's a strange combo, but hey, we need a kick returner...

But a safety? Well, maybe. Mike Brown is a gamer, but he's had a hard time staying healthy. Chris Harris had a good rookie season, but are the Bears less than sold on his future? The depth at the position was considered strong a few months ago with Todd Johnson and Brandon McGowan. Strong enough, in fact, that Angelo traded former starter Mike Green to Seattle for a sixth. You remember Green -- he was the veteran tackling machine who got beaten out of a job by Harris after Week One last September.

Will Manning contribute at safety in 2006? Stranger things have happened, and there's always the chance that we'll see him try out at corner. But you get the sense that the Bears just spent their first pick in the draft on a kickoff return specialist.

Now remember, the payoff for the trade-down was an extra player in the third round, and so here's your equalizer: Oklahoma DT Dusty Dvoracek, described as "a straight-line athlete who lacks the agility and hips to change directions and chase down plays in the other direction." His other claim to fame? He got kicked off the Sooners in 2004 after he beat-up a buddy so badly that he had to be hospitalized. Great.

OK, I understand that Tank Johnson is out and that Lovie likes to rotate his tackles. But isn't Ian Scott the real starter beside Tommie Harris? And don't we have more pressing needs? And aren't there other options, later in the draft, for one-dimensional run-stuffing tackles?

I see it this way: The Bears had an opportunity to upgrade their starter at tight end or at outside linebacker with the No. 26 pick. Instead, they added depth at two positions and competition at the return spots. If they're drafting for the future, OK -- Manning looks like he might be something. But Dvoracek?

We shall see.

Which brings us to Hester. Here's a guy with gamebreaking ability, speed and athleticism, a guy who can play in all three phases of the game, a big play specialist.

Only he hasn't been able to do it consistently. He barely broke the starting lineup at Miami, and then he came out early. One scout called him the biggest boom-or-bust prospect in the draft.

I've already described a scenario in which Hester could be a valuable asset for the Bears, and if he lives up to his press clippings as a return man, he looks to be the rookie who could make the biggest splash in 2006.

But taken in the context of the Manning selection (not to mention the Manning free agency signing), and you're looking at a kid in a crowded backfield, competing for return opportunities with another 2nd round pick.

My guess, based on these scouting reports, is that Manning will return kickoffs and Hester will return punts. That will be an upgrade to our special teams.

But was that Angelo's plan coming into the day? Spend two 2nd round picks on DBs who will contribute on Special Teams? Of course not. And that's the problem with this draft.

Angelo gambled -- and lost.

It says here that Angelo and the Bears brain trust thought they were going to have a shot at another player at No. 42, and my guess is it was Ryan. Had Ryan been there, the Bears would have chosen either Manning or Hester at No. 57 and declared their return woes solved.

Then, to cap off their perfect draft day, Angelo would have drafted Pope at No. 73.

So there you have Angelo's thinking when he took the Buffalo at No. 26: Trade down, still get your guy, pick up an extra player. Walk away with two positional starters and an athletic kick returner.

Instead, they created a logjam at DB, wound up with an extra returner and and gagged on a journeyman defensive lineman after Arizona beat them to Pope.

Going into the draft's second day, the Bears need to create some depth at linebacker and tight end. They could use a couple of good developmental tackles (who couldn't?).

But I don't expect much from the rest of this draft this year. Unless Angelo finds an upgrade for the punter or the placekicker, this team is pretty much set now -- and they're going to win or lose with the personnel who are already on the roster.

Is it good enough?

It better be.

Bears players in NFL Europe for 2006

2006-03-14T10:34:00.000-08:00

You don't hear much about the Bears' players in NFL Europe, but I always perk up when I see an orange "C" on a European team's jersey. So far the only Bear to really make it big out of Europe was Marcus Robinson, who was drafted high before gaining experience across the pond, but I remember Marcus Reese doing well, and last year we had a couple of quarterbacks who made strides.

Will anyone from this year's group make the 2006 regular season roster? If the NFL Europe Draft is any indication, cornerback Abraham Elimimian is one to watch. Amsterdam took him with their first pick. Five rounds later, the Admirals picked another Bear, wide receiver Craig Bragg (a 2005 Green Bay 6th round pick) who comes with an impressive college resume. Linebacker Stephen Larsen and quarterback BJ Symons look interesting, too.

Among the veterans, the big story is left tackle Qasim Mitchell -- a guy the Bears considered a player with a future just two years ago. Mitchell was our opening-day starter in 2004, but fell out of favor and might be on the verge of falling off the roster. I'm pulling for the kid, because he's my homeboy out of NC A&T. Here's hoping he makes good.

Defenders
Abraham Elimimian, CB, 5-10 / 193, Hawaii, first round NFLE draft pick, Amsterdam Admirals. Signed with the Chargers as an undrafted free agent in 2005, but was cut in August. Signed by Chicago in January. His 12 career interceptions is the second most ever at Hawaii. Born in Nigeria.

Willie Amos, CB, 6-0, 186, Nebraska, 7th round NFLW, Hamburg Sea Devils. A track guy who switched from DB to WR as a senior at Nebraska.

Jason Harmon, CB, 5-11, 209, Michigan State, 14th round NFLE, Frankfurt Galaxy.

Stephen Larsen, LB, 6-1, 235, San Diego State, 5th round NFLE, Rhein Fire. Signed with Chicago as an undrafted free agent in April 2005, but was cut in August and then re-signed in February.

Justin Smith, LB, 6-0, 218, Indiana, 5th round, Hamburg Sea Devils. Entered NFL as free agent in 2002 with the Bucs, later played five games with the Rams and was on the Panthers roster.

Josh Dean, LB, 6-1, 215, San Diego State, 15th round NFLE, Cologne Centurians. Undrafted free agent signed by Chicago in January. Three-year starter for the Aztecs.

Jeremy Cain, LB, 6-1 / 235, Massachussets, allocated, Amsterdam Admirals. Signed by Chicago as an undrafted free agent in 2004, Cain has played in eight regular season games, including three in 2005, for the Bears.

Offensive players
Craig Bragg, WR, 6-1, 194, UCLA, 6th round NFLE draft, Amsterdam Admirals. Sixth round pick of the Green Bay Packers in 2005, Bragg stuck around on the practice squad until November, when the Jets signed him to their practice squad. Signed by the Bears in January. Holds multiple records at UCLA, where his 193 receptions is the most ever by a Bruin (his yardage total is second on the UCLA all-time list).

Qasim Mitchell, T, 6-6, 330, NC A&T, allocated, Frankfort Galaxy. Former starting LT for Chicago in 2003-04, starting 16 of his 19 career games. When given the starting job outright in 2004, Mitchell struggled, wound up on IR, and is now in Frankfort trying to revive his career. A four-year veteran, originally signed by Cleveland.

BJ Symons, QB, 6-1, 215, Texas Tech, allocated, Berlin Thunder. Second year in NFL Europe. Drafted in the 7th round of the 2004 NFL draft by Houston. Spent 2004 year on injured reserve (knee). Won Sammy Baugh award as nation's top passer in 2003.

OK, this would be better...

2006-03-10T19:58:00.000-08:00

The other day I made a big deal about signing Mike Vanderjagt, and I did so for one reason: I never believed that the New England Patriots -- the smartest team in football -- would let Super Bowl hero Adam Vinatieri onto the open market.

But here's The Boston Herald saying that's exactly what's going to happen. Pats beat writer Michael Felger said letting Vinatieri escape New England "may mark the biggest mistake Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli have made since they arrived in Foxboro six years ago."

Vanderjagt has the million-dollar leg. But if I were picking a kicker for the Bears, Vinatieri would be my No. 2 choice in the league (behind Rackers).

So let's make this simple: If he's available, you sign him.

Next?

How's this for a free agency target?

2006-03-09T12:44:00.000-08:00

OK, I know we last saw him choking away a playoff game to the Steelers. And I know he's a freak who says weird things about teammates.

That's because he's a kicker.

One of the most accurate, big-legged, big game kickers in the NFL.

And if you're a team that's been built like the Bears, you need a good one. A great one would be even better.

Mike Vanderjagt: He's no Neil Rackers... but then again, Neil Rackers wasn't Neil Rackers until 2005.

But if we could sign just one guy, this would be my choice.

Can I get a witness, football bretheren?

Free at last!

2006-03-09T10:59:00.000-08:00

With the Bears dealing from behind a $17 million to $20 million salary cap surplus, the pending start of the 2006 free agency period has got me all excited. When you team has money to burn and your competitors are strapped, all sorts of good things can happen.

But it says here that good things won't necessarily happen if the Bears go out and sign Chicagoland native Antwaan Randle El.

Randle El is a good football player, a Super Bowl Champion and a dynamic receiver and return man. No disrespect is intended.

But he's a No. 2 receiver at best, and the team that signs him is going to be shelling out No. 1 WR money. Which is just one reason the Bears should pass.

The best reasons to pass on Randle El? Bernard Berrian, Mark Bradley and -- to a lesser extent -- Justin Gage. One of those guys is going to be a legitimate No. 2 WR for Chicago in 2006, and Bradley in particular flashed signs of future greatness. Note to Angelo: You've got a 5th, a 3rd and a 2nd invested in these guys, and so far you're getting a pretty good return on it. Stand pat.

Personally, I'd love to see Randle El returning kicks for the Bears -- I just don't want to see the team invest the kind of money that would cost, and I don't want to see him slowing the development of Bradley and Berrian, who are probably better NFL wide receivers.

So where should we spend the money?

Well, after re-signing and rewarding our own players, cornerbacks Charles Woodson and Nate Clements spring to mind, with Woodson particularly intriguing. He's a premiere athlete who -- despite his obvious talents -- has become an overpaid, underachieving, injury-prone luxury in Oakland.

But what if you put Woodson on a team where he didn't have to serve as an every-down, shut-down corner? What if you put him in a zone-heavy system that would allow him the freedom to take a few ball-hawking risks?
Signing Woodson would be expensive, but it would give the team three legitimate starters at cornerback -- which is where we would have been in 2005, had Jerry Azumah been able to stay healthy.

The pundits like to say that the only good free agent signings are four-and-five-year veterans who are rising talents, but this overlooks the essential fact of modern football: Everything is about roles and expectations.

Because Randle El fits the punditry profile, he'll make too much -- placing him in a leading role that does not suit him. Expectations will be too high, and he'll likely be deemed a disappointment.

But a talented team that is within its Super Bowl window (as Chicago is today) can go out and sign a relatively expensive veteran on the downslope of his career -- because by setting that veteran in a supporting role , expectations can be kept manageable. Chicago is balanced and deep -- which means it's in a great position to bring in veterans others avoid and make a quick push for a championship.

In other words, would a certifiable egotist like Woodson accept a supporting -- rather than starring -- role for a team like Chicago? Probably not. But after eight long years in Oakland, would the prospect of management sanity and a league title affect his thinking?

Again, probably not -- although a boy can dream...

We've got the QB we need

2006-02-16T13:32:00.000-08:00

So the word comes out of Minnesota today: QB Daunte Culpepper could be had for a 2nd rounder.

This for a 29-year-old former Pro Bowl quarterback who could have as much as a decade of productive NFL years ahead of him. This for the guy I wanted the Bears to draft ahead of everybody but Donovan McNabb in 1999. This for a guy I thought was on the verge of dominating the sport before the kickoff of the 2005 season.

All for a second rounder.

And my clear message to Angelo? DON'T DO IT!

We've got the QB we need, and his name is Rex Grossman. Culpepper, for all his potential and proven greatness, has to be rated beneath Grossman as a prospect right now. Nobody really expects Culpepper to play in 2006, and nobody knows what he'll be 2007.

In fact, a quick look around the NFC North reveals something amazing: The Bears have the most settled and most promising quarterback situation in the division... Vikings? Brad Johnson isn't scaring anybody. Packers? Brett Favre hasn't yet committed to playing, and his skills are fading. Lions? Mike Martz is an over-rated loose cannon and doesn't look like the kind of guy who is going to transform Joey Harrington and his bruised ego into anything resembling a top-tier NFL signal-caller.

Get behind me, Satan!

2005-12-05T04:28:00.000-08:00

No, the Green Bay Packers are no longer the kind of team that puts fear in the hearts of the NFC North... much less the league at large.

But to the Chicago Bears, beating the Packers at Soldier Field is an enormous step. Even in their magical 2001 season, when their regular-season play was sprinkled with pixie dust, the Bears couldn't beat Brett Favre and crew on the shores of Lake Michigan.

But on Sunday, we beat the Devil. Intercepted him. Pounded him. We hit the Devil in the back and caused him to fumble. Amen.

So let us celebrate Sunday's 19-7 victory. Let us celebrate our amazing cornerbacks, Peanut Tillman and Nathan Vasher. Let us give praise to our running game and our run-stoppers, to Thomas Jones and Tommie Harris, to John Tait and Lance Briggs. Let us savor the moment.

Breathe in. Hold it. Exhale.

OK, now: Back to business.

Let's get serious. The Bears are 9-3, within striking distance of home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and it's time to take stock of the season and the franchise. No more pussyfooting around.

The defense: Playing to win
In the off-season I told several people that the Bears would be a Top 5 defense if they stayed healthy. The only glaring question mark, I said, was the SAM position and general depth at linebacker.

After 12 games, the Bears are the No. 1 defense in the league -- and not just statistically, or in points allowed. They're the best defense in the NFL because they're a game-changing, attack-the-offense kind of unit.

From a 2005 perspective, there's no reason to believe that they've peaked. If anything, this unit seems to be improving, getting more aggressive, more sly, more alert. Sunday's game likely cost us rookie safety Chris Harris for a few weeks, but the Bears have two good safeties behind him, and they still go three-deep at every position but linebacker.

On how many NFL teams would Jerry Azumah be a nickel back? How many teams could afford the luxury of a Tank Johnson coming off the bench, or an inactive Michael Haynes?

From the franchise perspective, the picture is even brighter. All our defensive starters are signed through 2007, and none of them has been in the league longer than six years. Tillman, Vasher, Briggs, Brian Urlacher, Wally Ogunleye, Alex and Mike Brown and Tommie Harris are all having Pro Bowl-quality seasons.

In fact, the biggest danger to this unit is that its success could get defensive coordinator Ron Rivera a job elsewhere. Of course, if that happens, watch the Bears sign Mike Singletary as their DC.

This is both the best defense in the league and the best young defense in the league, and for this we should credit GM Jerry Angelo. Its foundation may have been laid before his arrival, with the drafting of Urlacher and Brown 1-2 six years ago, but it was Angelo who brought in the rest of these guys. He used high draft picks (Harris, Haynes, Briggs and Tank Johnson), mid-rounders (Vasher, Ian Scott and Alex Brown) and late-round finds (Chris Harris). He traded for a rising star (Ogunleye) and nabbed people off the waiver wire (Hillenmeyer). This is what you ask for from a general manager, and the man deserves his props.

In short, this is a defense that's capable of winning a Super Bowl right now, and it's entirely capable of making the Bears a contender for much of what remains of this decade.

A wise man once said, "Defense wins championships." But a wiser man added "so long as the offense puts points on the board."

The offense: Playing not to lose
The best job in the world? Bears offensive coordinator. Why? Because the bar has been set so incredibly fucking low.

In 2003, the Bears had perhaps the worst offensive coordinator in the history of the game. Once, facing fourth and goal from about the 13, this bozo actually called a play-action pass. My son, who was 13 at the time, immediately burst out laughing. "He called play action? On 4th and long? Even I know that's stupid."

That man's name was John Shoop, and to grasp how bad things have been in Chicago, you have to understand that when Shoop was promoted to the job, it originally looked like an improvement. That's because his predecessor, Gary Crowton, was out of his mind.

Crowton came to Chicago with a reputation as an offensive innovator. Fans liked the sound of that. We were tired of offenses that threw the ball only on third and long, and then only with great fear and trepidation. When Crowton's pass-happy approach failed to produce, our first thought was that the players just needed time to grasp the promising concept.

But it turned out that while the players were learning it, so were the league's defensive coordinators. In his second season, Crowton's offense was exposed as a cheap gimmick. Unable to trick defenses or even to communicate with his own players, Crowton was history. In comparison, Shoop looked sharp.

The pixie-dust 13-3 season of 2001 masked all sorts of flaws, not these least of which was these: Dick Jauron was a guy who simply wouldn't fire a coach for being incompetent. So the more the media and the fans called for Shoop's head, the more Jauron stuck with him. This, if nothing else, should have been grounds for dismissal. If I'd have been the coach, I'd have fired the guy on the spot for that 4th-down play-action bullshit.

After Jauron and Shoop came Lovie Smith, who brought Kansas City quarterbacks coach Terry Shea to town. Shea was supposed to install the Dick Vermeil/Mike Martz offense, and he arrived with great fanfare. He brought his backup quarterback, Jonathan Quinn, promising that the guy was a skilled veteran who could run the show if Rex Grossman went down. He got the perfect running back for his offense, too, in free agent Thomas Jones. And Shea made an impression from the first, running around with great enthusiasm at training camp, chasing down players after long runs and hopping about like an over-caffinated toad.

Yes, Shea was emotional, energetic, encouraging ... and perhaps certifiably insane. He micromanaged. He called strange plays. He was paranoid. His offense imploded with Grossman's knee, and Jonathan Quinn, the seasoned backup he'd brought from Kansas City was immediately exposed as the worst Bears quarterback in a long string of inept signal-callers.

Had Jauron been the coach, Shea would have gotten a second chance, but this was the moment when we learned something important about Coach Smith: Lovie don't play that shit. He sent Shea packing as soon as the season ended, thenre-hired the best OC the Bears have ever had: Ron Turner.

Turner's 1995 Bears offense earned him the head coaching job at Illinois -- and his tenure there went sour just in time for him to become available to return to his old job. He arrived at what appeared to be a good moment: Angelo had identified the offense as his area of concern in 2005, and the unit received his full attention in the offseason.

There were new additions everywhere. The team signed veteran receiver Muhsin Muhammad within the opening minutes of free agency, then added offensive linemen Fred Miller and Roberto Garza. The draft brought running back Cedric Benson, wide receiver Mark Bradley and quarterback Kyle Orton. With quarterback Rex Grossman rehabbed from his knee injury, the team entered the 2005 preseason with reason for optimism.

In retrospect, most fans would have considered a 9-3 start optimistic even with Grossman at QB. How many of it us thought such a thing was possible with Orton under center? Exactly none. Kyle Orton has been the quarterback since Week 1, giving the team stability at the position for the first time since Erik Kramer's Mentos season in 1995.

By NFL standards, Orton is below mediocre. For a rookie quarterback, however, he is within striking distance of multiple records for first-year players. On the one hand, here's an NFL starter who throws more interceptions than touchdowns, the leader of an offense that is averaging just 14 points per game. On the other, this is a guy who has intangible qualities that make you think he will have a long NFL career.

What struck me Sunday, though, was how Orton's arc this season seems to be synching up perfectly with Grossman's rehab. Over 12 games, Orton has been good enough to win or keep the Bears competitive in 11 of them. That's remarkable. But you also get the sense in watching him that he hasn't really progressed in the past month. He looks like a kid who is hitting the rookie wall, who needs a little time to process all that he has learned. And yet the team keeps winning.

You respect the streak. Eight in a row is something special, and you ride that wave as far as it will take you. But sooner or later, all waves break. Will this one break next week at Pittsburgh? The week after in Atlanta? Or will it break at Green Bay or Minnesota? All I know is, the best thing that can happen to this team would be for the break to come before the playoffs. Because the day after that first loss, two things will occur.

First, Orton will shave his neck beard. And second, Lovie Smith is going to sit down with Turner and QB coach Wade Wilson. And they're going to talk about Rex Grossman.

If Grossman is healthy, he's probably a better quarterback than Orton is right now. You can't replace Orton so long as he's winning, but once that streak ends, all bets are off -- particularly if Orton continues to play like he has recently.

Other quarterbacks in the NFL are hanging on for dear life, trying to stay healthy for the playoffs. Only Chicago has gotten this far without the team's No. 1 QB taking a snap. And to me, this is the storyline that gets my blood pumping: What if Grossman returns and the offense improves, even a little bit? How much better is this team if it gets just a little bump in performance and confidence?

Let's say Grossman returns and gets his first playing time against Atlanta. Maybe he gets his first start at Lambeau, or, more likely, in the coda at Minnesota. Let's say he's good but not great, chugging along at at 75.0 QB rating, tossing between 190-210 yards per game and staying even between TDs and INTs. Let's say Cedric Benson returns and the defense stays healthy.

Give me that scenario, and I'll make a prediction: The Bears win the NFC Championship.

As Orton has proven, the Bears don't need great QB play to win. But even a 10 percent improvement would pay disproportionate and immediate dividends. A little boost means two or three more 3rd down conversion each week. It means a punt becomes a field goal. It means a field goal becomes a touchdown.

Right now, the Bears average less than 17 points per game. Bump that average up to 21 ppg down stretch and you're talking about the second of third-best team in the NFL.

But Grossman is more valuable than that, because Grossman offers something Orton can't: Hope. Because in the playoffs, if you're playing to protect your quarterback, you're playing to lose. Because in the playoffs, somebody is going to get you down. At some point, the Bears are going to have to put the ball in their quarterback's hands and say "Go win this thing." You can't do that with Orton right now, not with a straight face.

If we're going to lose, this week against Pittsburgh would be as good a time as any to do it. I'll be disappointed when the streak ends, but if Grossman moves up to the No. 2 QB and starts taking more snaps with the first string, I'll feel better. I'll understand that everything is fitting into a script too fantastic to believe. I'll start believing in destiny.

From the franchise perspective, the Bears are in decent shape at quarterback. Orton and Grossman give them a pair of legit young competitors, the kind of one-two punch every team needs. They can win with either one.

Wide receiver is clouded by the injury to Mark Bradley, who proved in just a few weeks that he has the skills to be a legit NFL starter. If he's the same player after rehab, then the Bears will enter 2006 with at least four functional wideouts: Muhammad No. 1, Bradley No. 2, Berrian No. 3 and Gage No. 4. That leaves them two spots for special teams use or development. Desmond Clark is a journeyman tight end.

Running back will also hinge on health. If Benson is OK, then Thomas Jones becomes an interesting commodity. He's established himself as a 1,000-yard runner and a dangerous threat from anywhere on the field, the kind of player that multiple NFL teams covet. Obviously, you'd love to keep a player like that, but Jones may want something more than a share of an offense that is more suited to Benson. My guess is the 2006 Bears will be a three-headed RB monster, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Jones move to another team in a trade (New York Jets?) on Draft Day.

The offensive line has played well, but it's also the area of biggest concern for 2006.

Special teams: JUST HOLD ON TO THE DAMNED BALL!
As bad as the offense has been, our special teams aren't far off. Gould is a weak kicker and absolutely the wrong kind of a guy for a team built around defense. Let's hope Angelo upgrades the position in the off-season.

Let's also hope he brings in a punt returner. Bobby "Mr. Fumbles" Wade isn't the answer, so goodbye.

Our coverage teams have been good, so not everything is a shambles. Plus you gotta love the play we're getting out of Brad Maynard. It's just hard to see that when every punt return is an adventure.

2005 outlook
I expect to see the Bears finish no better than 3-1 over the final two weeks of the season, with 2-2 more likely. They'll enter the playoffs with Grossman at quarterback and win at least one game. If they get home-field advantage, they'll run the NFC and lose to Indianapolis in Super Bowl XL.

2006 outlook
Chicago has plenty of cap room, but I'd be surprised to see them bring in more than one top-tier free agent. Most of that money will go to locking down young stars on defense.

Look for the Bears to draft plenty of offensive linemen high in April -- and don't be surprised if that one top-tier FA is a tackle. The only other obvious "need" position really isn't a glaring hole -- the Bears need linebacker depth and competition for Hillenmeyer.

And here's my surprise pick: If I were Angelo, I'd put my off-season emphasis on finding a premiere kicker. I might even trade for a guy like Neil Rackers -- even if it cost me a high pick to get him. A team built like this one doesn't need an average kicker -- it needs a great one, with a huge leg, someone who can hit from outside 50 and drive kickoffs to the goal line time after time.

The Bears have built a foundation, and the current set of players means we'll have a window of opportunity that should last for at least another two or three years. But in the end, it really does come down to the question we were asking back in July: How far can Grossman take us?

The answer could be the most dramatic storyline in the NFL in 2005.

The Promised Land... It's just over ... there!

2005-11-22T12:58:00.000-08:00

Friends, it's a good year to be a Chicago Bears fan.

Not only for the winning, O Faithful Ones, but also for the style of the winning. For truly I say unto you: We be kicking ass.

Yea though we have wandered in the wilderness of mediocrity for lo these many years, now we have quality.

Once we worshipped false defensive ends, and the linemen of our forefathers were treated as but legends. Mongo and Danimal, Hartenstine and Perry -- foresaken all these years. But now I swear before these witnesses that I have seen the second coming of Wally Chambers, and his name is Adawale Ogunleye. Amen.

Once we changed quarterbacks more often than Green Bay punted. No longer.

For it is written, "And a child shall lead them." And it shall be edited: "And a child from Purdue shall lead them, even though he shall groweth a beard in hopes of looking older, although it won't fool anybody." Verily.

Friends, we have won six games in a row and vanquished the mighty Panthers. We have risen to No. 7 in Pete Prisco's Power Rankings.

But we shall not be distracted by these baubles. No, we shall walk, and run -- and block and tackle -- and not grow weary.

For we have seen the promised land.

I may not get there with you...

2005 Manly Football League Draft

2005-08-30T06:02:00.000-07:00

In the Manly Football League, we protect three players on Aug. 1, officially beginning the new season. My Charleston Snobs entered 2005 with a mediocre group (RB Edgerrin James, RB Stephen Jackson and QB Tom Brady) a late start in the draft and five picks in rounds four and five.

I acquired Jackson late in the season, picked up James in a trade that cost me the No. 4 pick plus Antonio Gates and Travis Henry, and got Brady for a 6th rounder.

Also, since I traded away the first of my two 2nd rounders for a 1st in 2006, I didn't pick until No. 24.

Here's how my draft went:

SECOND ROUND: RB THOMAS JONES, CHICAGO. I had expected to draft a wideout here, but I'm a big believer in the value of having three legitimate running backs. When the Bears' Thomas Jones continued to slide, I jumped on him, figuring it would be easier to get a wide receiver who could produce at the level of Laveranues Coles than it would be to find a veteran RB with Jones' abilities. The room laughed because of my obvious Bears obsession, but I went with the pick despite my allegiance to the team. Jones is downgraded by most fantasy publications because he plays for a lousy offense and is expected to lose his starting job when No. 4 NFL draft pick Cedric Benson shows up.

On Saturday it looked very likely that rookie QB Kyle Orton would open the season as the Bears' signal caller, and with Benson unsigned, I figured that Jones would start the season as the No. 1 back in Ron Turner's offense. He's more than capable, and might even be the kind of guy who will play better with Benson pushing and spelling him.

But here's the kicker: Jones has learned his blitz pickups and is the kind of veteran support that a rookie quarterback needs to succeed. The Bears will want to work Benson into their offense, and they'll want him to contribute in 2005, but I suspect that Jones will be the primary guy and do well. Obviously, if Jones stumbles or starts missing pass blocks, Benson will get his shot sooner rather than later, and I'm not dumb enough to think that Benson won't be the Main Man by the end of the year. But I think that Jones is an undervalued player.

My projection: I expect Jones to play well as the starter at the start of the season and split time during the back half of 2005. If he stays healthy, I see him just topping 1,000 yards (for the first time in his career) and scoring between 6 and 8 touchdowns.

Ultimately, I think this selection will have to be compared to Denver RB Mike Anderson, who was still on the board. I didn't go that route simply because I don't trust the RB depth chart there.

THIRD ROUND: WR MUHSIN MUHAMMAD, CHICAGO. This really had the boys howling, and I can't blame them... except here's the thing: With 73 players off the board and no need for RBs or QBs, Muhammad was just too good a talent to pass up. In selecting him I passed up players who were rated more highly, such as Ashley Lelie, Donald Driver, Isaac Bruce, Drew Bennett and Anquon Boldin, but I preferred Muhammad to each of them.

To me, Muhammad is a veteran leader who will be the go-to guy in Chicago no matter who the QB is. I think his ceiling is limited by lack of QB talent, but I expect him to score between 6 and 8, maybe a bit more if Rex Grossman returns in late November/early December.

FOURTH ROUND NO. 1: WR MICHAEL JENKINS, ATLANTA. From here on out I went looking for players who I consider to be potential breakout performers. For instance, I took Jenkins one pick ahead of Oakland WR Jerry Porter, who is considered a "safer" choice. What I know, though, is that Porter is prone to leg muscle problems, gets nicked, and could easily be surpassed on the Raiders depth chart by Ronald Curry and Doug Gabriel. Yes, he'll get more single coverage with Randy Moss on the other side of the field, but I see too many negatives around him.

Jenkins, on the other hand, is a talented receiver who is finally being given every opportunity to start for one of the better teams in the NFC. He responded by making some big plays in last week's pre-season game, and if he can continue to improve he has all the physical tools to be an enormous Red Zone scoring threat. In a TD-only league, you gotta look for that.

By every measure, I picked Jenkins too early. But I drafted differently this year: I highlighted players that I liked, regardless of ranking, and ranked them in terms of people that I wouldn't want to miss. Jenkins was high on that list, and once I had a "foundational" player in Muhammad, I started chasing breakouts.

FOURTH ROUND NO. 2: TE DOUG JOLLEY, NEW YORK JETS. More laughter, but here's the thinking: Witten (2nd round), Crumpler (2nd round), Heap (3rd), Shockey (3rd) and Franks (3rd) were all off the board, as were Gonzalez and Gates (protecteds). Of the remaining tight ends, none of them looked like they had the upside potential to score more than 3 to 5 times.

Jolley, on the other hand, is a guy with the potential to go big. He is tall, fluid and runs with the kind of downfield speed that separates the true receiving TEs from the telephone posts like Bubba Franks. Jolley was under-utilized in Oakland, but the Jets targeted him early in the off-season and clearly plan to involve him in their offense.

We watched a lot of Jets games last year, and here's what we saw: Chris Baker, the nominal backup, was a big, slow guy who still caught four touchdowns near the goal. Anthony Becht was a stiff who caught one score. But what those stats DON'T tell you was how many times Chad Pennington targeted Becht in the Red Zone, and how many times Becht just dropped it.

I see Jolley as almost a lock to score an average number of touchdowns for his position. With just a little good fortune, however, it wouldn't surprise me to see Jolley contending for elite positional status and double-digit scoring. I'll take those odds on the 94th player chosen, and if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. If I'm right, it's my own analysis, and I'm wear that on my sleeve.

By taking him here, though, it cost me a shot at two players on my list: Chad Pennington and David Givens. This could haunt me.

FIFTH ROUND NO. 1: WR DEION BRANCH, NEW ENGLAND. He is undersized, has a hard time staying healthy and Brady spreads the ball around, but this is just why the guy was available in the fifth round. If he stays healthy he is a good breakout candidate. If he doesn't, I can live with that.

I targeted either Branch or Givens in the draft, with Givens my first choice. He went three picks earlier. Givens is the safer option, with Branch the home-run hitter.

FIFTH ROUND NO. 2: PK TODD PETERSON, ATLANTA. I'm a huge fan of dome kickers on good teams with inconsistent quarterbacks and aggressive defenses. That gives you just one option: Whomever Is Kicking For The Falcons. Peterson is a journeyman, but I did very well a few years ago by picking up Feeley, and I've just got a feeling that the veteran Peterson will have his best year in 2005. He's not particularly consistent, but kicking indoors and in the South is just a better situation.

Because I believed in this situation, I waited out the kicker run in the fourth round.

FIFTH ROUND NO. 3: QB AARON BROOKS, NEW ORLEANS. I don't like Brooks and wanted Pennington, but I could do a lot worse. This also had the benefit of taking him off the board just one pick ahead of the league's best owner, who was still shopping for a starting quarterback after missing out on Hasselbeck in the third. He was forced to select Steve McNair on the next pick, and for all I know that might have been his fallback plan all along.

SEVENTH ROUND: WR TRAVIS TAYLOR, MINNESOTA. I like this pick a lot, and I think Taylor may well be my opening week starter due to a good matchup at home against Tampa Bay. Taylor was a bust in Baltimore, and it wasn't all the fault of the quarterback situation, but playing a complementary role in Minnesota in an explosive offense might just be the situation that he needs.

Remember, Daunte Culpepper tossed 39 touchdowns in 2004, and the No. 2 wide receiver stays busy up there. Taylor has had a quietly impressive training camp and passed oft-injured Marcus Robinson as the No. 2 WR last week. Rookie Troy Williamson still lurks, but my gut feeling is that Taylor could do some damage early in the year and surprise some people. For all his failings, one gets the sense that this is a veteran who now grasps that he is getting his last, best chance at making something out of his career.

EIGHTH ROUND: CHICAGO DEFENSE AND SPECIAL TEAMS. This is the highest I've ever drafted a defense, and if we still had 16 roster slots (we reduced the rosters to 14 this year) I might have waited. But ultimately, I drafted the Bears because I've been watching this defense evolve and it's a revelation waiting to happen.

Last year the Bears returned 7 kicks, fumbles and interceptions for touchdowns. This year they're healthier and more experienced, and there's just something about them as a unit. They're going to attack, and I expect them to score at least as many times as they did in 2004.

Urlacher is back, as is Mike Brown. The team goes three-deep at cornerback (Tillman, Azumah and Vasher), and has discovered a new threat in Briggs. But the real change is going to be on defensive line. This was the team's weakness in 2003, but now it goes three deep at tackle (Tommie Harris, Ian Scott and Tank Johnson) and three deep at end (Ugunleye, Brown and Haynes).

At a minimum, the Bears are the No. 3 fantasy defense, but most people won't recognize this because their stats were so bad last year.

NINTH ROUND: RB DOMANIC RHODES, INDIANAPOLIS. I only drafted him because I've got James.

TENTH ROUND: WR KEVIN CURTIS, ST. LOUIS. Another pick I like quite a bit. Curtis is one of those guys who doesn't have the right stuff to be a No. 1 or No. 2 wide receiver, but he is far too good for nickel backs to cover in man, and he shows a knack for carving up the seams in the Cover 2. In other words, Curtis has the chance to be a Brandon Stokely kind of player in 2005.

Welcome to the Cathedral

2005-08-30T05:47:00.000-07:00

Friends, do you love football?

Do you love it in your heart? Does is speak to you in your quiet moments? Does it come to you on silent cleats in the small hours and scream in your ear "WIN ON THREE! ONE TWO THREE!"

Amen.

Then join my church.

For this is not the Old Church of Football. No. The Old Covenant was broken by the West Coast Offense and those rules that allow offensive linemen to extend their arms whilst pass-blocking. The Old Church was The Junction Boys, led into the wilderness by The Bear and sacrificed for false gods. The Old Church celebrated communion with a salt tablet.

Here in the New Church, we experience a personal relationship with The Game via fantasy football, as defined by The Manly Football League.

We connect to the mystery of football through our pain and sacrifice as fans of The Chicago Bears, The One True Franchise.

We observe the passion of football through our 50-yard-line perspective on the SEC and the ACC.

And we explore the future of football through the Wando Warriors JV team, just because we've got a kid on the squad and high school football has always been cool to watch.

Here endeth the first lesson. Now go and punt no more.