2005 Manly Football League Draft

In the Manly Football League, we protect three players on Aug. 1, officially beginning the new season. My Charleston Snobs entered 2005 with a mediocre group (RB Edgerrin James, RB Stephen Jackson and QB Tom Brady) a late start in the draft and five picks in rounds four and five.

I acquired Jackson late in the season, picked up James in a trade that cost me the No. 4 pick plus Antonio Gates and Travis Henry, and got Brady for a 6th rounder.

Also, since I traded away the first of my two 2nd rounders for a 1st in 2006, I didn't pick until No. 24.

Here's how my draft went:

SECOND ROUND: RB THOMAS JONES, CHICAGO. I had expected to draft a wideout here, but I'm a big believer in the value of having three legitimate running backs. When the Bears' Thomas Jones continued to slide, I jumped on him, figuring it would be easier to get a wide receiver who could produce at the level of Laveranues Coles than it would be to find a veteran RB with Jones' abilities. The room laughed because of my obvious Bears obsession, but I went with the pick despite my allegiance to the team. Jones is downgraded by most fantasy publications because he plays for a lousy offense and is expected to lose his starting job when No. 4 NFL draft pick Cedric Benson shows up.

On Saturday it looked very likely that rookie QB Kyle Orton would open the season as the Bears' signal caller, and with Benson unsigned, I figured that Jones would start the season as the No. 1 back in Ron Turner's offense. He's more than capable, and might even be the kind of guy who will play better with Benson pushing and spelling him.

But here's the kicker: Jones has learned his blitz pickups and is the kind of veteran support that a rookie quarterback needs to succeed. The Bears will want to work Benson into their offense, and they'll want him to contribute in 2005, but I suspect that Jones will be the primary guy and do well. Obviously, if Jones stumbles or starts missing pass blocks, Benson will get his shot sooner rather than later, and I'm not dumb enough to think that Benson won't be the Main Man by the end of the year. But I think that Jones is an undervalued player.

My projection: I expect Jones to play well as the starter at the start of the season and split time during the back half of 2005. If he stays healthy, I see him just topping 1,000 yards (for the first time in his career) and scoring between 6 and 8 touchdowns.

Ultimately, I think this selection will have to be compared to Denver RB Mike Anderson, who was still on the board. I didn't go that route simply because I don't trust the RB depth chart there.

THIRD ROUND: WR MUHSIN MUHAMMAD, CHICAGO. This really had the boys howling, and I can't blame them... except here's the thing: With 73 players off the board and no need for RBs or QBs, Muhammad was just too good a talent to pass up. In selecting him I passed up players who were rated more highly, such as Ashley Lelie, Donald Driver, Isaac Bruce, Drew Bennett and Anquon Boldin, but I preferred Muhammad to each of them.

To me, Muhammad is a veteran leader who will be the go-to guy in Chicago no matter who the QB is. I think his ceiling is limited by lack of QB talent, but I expect him to score between 6 and 8, maybe a bit more if Rex Grossman returns in late November/early December.

FOURTH ROUND NO. 1: WR MICHAEL JENKINS, ATLANTA. From here on out I went looking for players who I consider to be potential breakout performers. For instance, I took Jenkins one pick ahead of Oakland WR Jerry Porter, who is considered a "safer" choice. What I know, though, is that Porter is prone to leg muscle problems, gets nicked, and could easily be surpassed on the Raiders depth chart by Ronald Curry and Doug Gabriel. Yes, he'll get more single coverage with Randy Moss on the other side of the field, but I see too many negatives around him.

Jenkins, on the other hand, is a talented receiver who is finally being given every opportunity to start for one of the better teams in the NFC. He responded by making some big plays in last week's pre-season game, and if he can continue to improve he has all the physical tools to be an enormous Red Zone scoring threat. In a TD-only league, you gotta look for that.

By every measure, I picked Jenkins too early. But I drafted differently this year: I highlighted players that I liked, regardless of ranking, and ranked them in terms of people that I wouldn't want to miss. Jenkins was high on that list, and once I had a "foundational" player in Muhammad, I started chasing breakouts.

FOURTH ROUND NO. 2: TE DOUG JOLLEY, NEW YORK JETS. More laughter, but here's the thinking: Witten (2nd round), Crumpler (2nd round), Heap (3rd), Shockey (3rd) and Franks (3rd) were all off the board, as were Gonzalez and Gates (protecteds). Of the remaining tight ends, none of them looked like they had the upside potential to score more than 3 to 5 times.

Jolley, on the other hand, is a guy with the potential to go big. He is tall, fluid and runs with the kind of downfield speed that separates the true receiving TEs from the telephone posts like Bubba Franks. Jolley was under-utilized in Oakland, but the Jets targeted him early in the off-season and clearly plan to involve him in their offense.

We watched a lot of Jets games last year, and here's what we saw: Chris Baker, the nominal backup, was a big, slow guy who still caught four touchdowns near the goal. Anthony Becht was a stiff who caught one score. But what those stats DON'T tell you was how many times Chad Pennington targeted Becht in the Red Zone, and how many times Becht just dropped it.

I see Jolley as almost a lock to score an average number of touchdowns for his position. With just a little good fortune, however, it wouldn't surprise me to see Jolley contending for elite positional status and double-digit scoring. I'll take those odds on the 94th player chosen, and if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. If I'm right, it's my own analysis, and I'm wear that on my sleeve.

By taking him here, though, it cost me a shot at two players on my list: Chad Pennington and David Givens. This could haunt me.

FIFTH ROUND NO. 1: WR DEION BRANCH, NEW ENGLAND. He is undersized, has a hard time staying healthy and Brady spreads the ball around, but this is just why the guy was available in the fifth round. If he stays healthy he is a good breakout candidate. If he doesn't, I can live with that.

I targeted either Branch or Givens in the draft, with Givens my first choice. He went three picks earlier. Givens is the safer option, with Branch the home-run hitter.

FIFTH ROUND NO. 2: PK TODD PETERSON, ATLANTA. I'm a huge fan of dome kickers on good teams with inconsistent quarterbacks and aggressive defenses. That gives you just one option: Whomever Is Kicking For The Falcons. Peterson is a journeyman, but I did very well a few years ago by picking up Feeley, and I've just got a feeling that the veteran Peterson will have his best year in 2005. He's not particularly consistent, but kicking indoors and in the South is just a better situation.

Because I believed in this situation, I waited out the kicker run in the fourth round.

FIFTH ROUND NO. 3: QB AARON BROOKS, NEW ORLEANS. I don't like Brooks and wanted Pennington, but I could do a lot worse. This also had the benefit of taking him off the board just one pick ahead of the league's best owner, who was still shopping for a starting quarterback after missing out on Hasselbeck in the third. He was forced to select Steve McNair on the next pick, and for all I know that might have been his fallback plan all along.

SEVENTH ROUND: WR TRAVIS TAYLOR, MINNESOTA. I like this pick a lot, and I think Taylor may well be my opening week starter due to a good matchup at home against Tampa Bay. Taylor was a bust in Baltimore, and it wasn't all the fault of the quarterback situation, but playing a complementary role in Minnesota in an explosive offense might just be the situation that he needs.

Remember, Daunte Culpepper tossed 39 touchdowns in 2004, and the No. 2 wide receiver stays busy up there. Taylor has had a quietly impressive training camp and passed oft-injured Marcus Robinson as the No. 2 WR last week. Rookie Troy Williamson still lurks, but my gut feeling is that Taylor could do some damage early in the year and surprise some people. For all his failings, one gets the sense that this is a veteran who now grasps that he is getting his last, best chance at making something out of his career.

EIGHTH ROUND: CHICAGO DEFENSE AND SPECIAL TEAMS. This is the highest I've ever drafted a defense, and if we still had 16 roster slots (we reduced the rosters to 14 this year) I might have waited. But ultimately, I drafted the Bears because I've been watching this defense evolve and it's a revelation waiting to happen.

Last year the Bears returned 7 kicks, fumbles and interceptions for touchdowns. This year they're healthier and more experienced, and there's just something about them as a unit. They're going to attack, and I expect them to score at least as many times as they did in 2004.

Urlacher is back, as is Mike Brown. The team goes three-deep at cornerback (Tillman, Azumah and Vasher), and has discovered a new threat in Briggs. But the real change is going to be on defensive line. This was the team's weakness in 2003, but now it goes three deep at tackle (Tommie Harris, Ian Scott and Tank Johnson) and three deep at end (Ugunleye, Brown and Haynes).

At a minimum, the Bears are the No. 3 fantasy defense, but most people won't recognize this because their stats were so bad last year.

NINTH ROUND: RB DOMANIC RHODES, INDIANAPOLIS. I only drafted him because I've got James.

TENTH ROUND: WR KEVIN CURTIS, ST. LOUIS. Another pick I like quite a bit. Curtis is one of those guys who doesn't have the right stuff to be a No. 1 or No. 2 wide receiver, but he is far too good for nickel backs to cover in man, and he shows a knack for carving up the seams in the Cover 2. In other words, Curtis has the chance to be a Brandon Stokely kind of player in 2005.