Falling down in the draft

The first Bears draft pick that I remember was Walter Payton, and here's the way things were in the South in 1975 -- despite the excitement about our new rookie HB, I had to wait until 1976 just to see him play.

We wouldn't be good for a while yet, but the selection of Payton in 1975 was the beginning of a golden age of Bears scouting and drafting that would continue through the selection of RB Neal Anderson in 1986.

Hits
RB Walter Payton, Jackson State, 1975. Simply the greatest Bear of all time.
DE/DT Dan Hampton, Arkansas, 1979. Another Hall of Famer.
DE/OLB Al Harris, Arizona State, 1979. Great pass rusher who sat out the 1985 season in a contract dispute. That gaffe tarnished what was otherwise a very good career.
OLB Otis Wilson, Louisville, 1980. He struggled for the first four years, but once the lights went on in 1984 he was a lights-out, Pro-Bowl star.
RT Keith Van Horne, USC, 1981. Though he wasn't a Top 10 pick, Van Horne (No. 11) was as close to a sure thing as you're likely to see. He was always good, and occasionally great.
QB Jim McMahon, Brigham Young, 1982. He was hurt entirely too much, but a great QB nonetheless.
LT Jim Covert, Pittsburgh, 1983. Back injures shortened his career, but Covert was likely the greatest LT in franchise history.
WR Willie Gault, Tennessee, 1983. Twelve picks after snagging Covert, the Bears got a rare specimen in this Olympic sprinter. Though not a complete player, Gault's talents were so extreme that he changed games simply by stepping on the field.
DT William Perry, Clemson, 1985. Perry was more of a novelty than a true defensive star his rookie season, but he was a productive, disruptive player for much of his career.
RB Neal Anderson, Florida, 1986. Chicago scored with the last pick in the first round, with Anderson ably replacing Payton after his retirement.

Acceptable
OT Ted Albrecht, California, 1977. Albrecht was a better than average starting tackle for several years and was part of a young offensive unit that sprung Payton for some of his best seasons.

Disappointments
OT Dennis Lick, Wisconsin, 1976. Injuries kept him from meeting his considerable potential.

Busts
Trading the team's No. 1 pick to Cleveland for Mike Phipps, 1978. The front office hoped it was acquiring a veteran leader to spark the Bears' Payton-led offense, but Phipps was so mediocre he struggled to replace gritty Bob Avelini.

Since then, though, the Bears have missed more than they've hit. Take a look at their first-round picks since 1987...

Hits
MLB Brian Urlacher, New Mexico, 2000. Drafted as a weakside disrupter, Urlacher struggled at the position until injuries moved him into the starting MLB role his rookie season. He'll ultimately be remembered as one of the top five greatest Bear linebackers.
DT Tommie Harris, Oklahoma, 2004. Though his health has been a bit spotty, Harris is one of the most athletic DTs in the NFL and a mid-round steal.

Acceptable
RB/FB Brad Muster, Stanford, 1988. For a while it looked like the Muster/Anderson combo would provide a classic NFL rushing attack. Today, Muster looks like one of the last true rushing fullbacks in NFL history. He was a solid and interesting player, but never rose to greatness before departing in free agency.
WR Wendell Davis, Louisiana State, 1988. Another late-in-the-round pick, Davis had a few decent seasons before blowing up both his knees on a single play in Philadelphia.
CB Donnell Woolford, Clemson, 1989. The Bears hoped they'd solved their CB issues with Woolford, but he was never more than a functional journeyman.
DE Trace Armstrong, Florida, 1989. Armstrong was a better player after he left Chicago, but he was a valuable -- though not stellar -- contributor before hitting the road as a free agent.
S Mark Carrier, Southern California, 1990. If you only looked at Carrier's rookie season, you'd think you'd found a great one, but unfortunately time went on. The Bears drafted Carrier No. 6 when the safety agreed before the draft to a contract, and he immediately rewarded the team with 10 interceptions and the Defensive Rookie of the Year Award. He played in three Pro Bowls, but basically went downhill from his rookie season and left as soon as he was eligible for free agency.
WR Curtis Conway, Southern California, 1993. The Bears drafted Conway ahead of OT Willie Roaf and RB Jerome Bettis.. Conway is one of only a few Bears receivers to notch a thousand-yard, 10-touchdown season, but most fans felt he never really lived up to his potential.
CB Walt Harris, Mississippi State, 1996. Chicago actually traded up to get Harris, who played journeyman ball and never seemed to realize his full talent. Harris left in free agency and made the Pro Bowl in 2006 after having a career year for the 49ers.
QB Rex Grossman, Florida, 2003. Though ridiculously maligned, Grossman's stats speak for themselves. He has a winning record as a starter, a Super Bowl on his resume, and turned in one of the top three statistical seasons in franchise history in 2006. Whether he returns with a new contract in 2008 remains to be seen.
TE Greg Olsen, Miami, 2007. Fans pestered Jerry Angelo to draft a tight end in 2005 and 2006, but Olsen looks like he was worth the wait. Considered a Top 15 talent by most scouts, Olsen dropped to the second-to-last pick in the round, then turned in a good rookie season. His standing could easily rise to the "Hit" level.

Disappointments
QB Jim Harbaugh, Michigan, 1987. The 1987 draft was perhaps the weakest in modern history, and in retrospect, Harbaugh was probably one of the better first-round picks. He played well enough to earn a hefty contract extension, then immediately slumped his way into an ignominious release. Strangely enough, Harbaugh enjoyed a magical season with the Colts late in his career, earning himself the nickname "Captain Comeback." The moniker didn't apply to his Bears career, where he is best remembered as the recipient of Mike Ditka's infamous Metrodome sideline meltdown.
OT Marc Colombo, Boston College, 2002. Jerry Angelo came to Chicago with a reputation for drafting linemen, and the team's fluke 13-win season in 2001 gave him a chance to chase one late in Round No. 1. Colombo was a big, non-athletic, "mean-spirited" tackle with a borderline first-round grade, and he didn't start until late in his rookie season. He immediately suffered a career-threatening knee injury, and then spent several years rehabbing. The Bears were eventually forced to cut him, an act that Colombo saw as a betrayal. The big ugly dude went on to start for the Dallas Cowboys, but few NFL observers would grade him as anything above the journeyman level. Had that freakish injury not occurred, Colombo might have been a decent right tackle in Chicago.
2006 trade down and out of the round. When WR Santonio Holmes went ahead of Chicago's No. 26 pick, Angelo traded down from the spot, picking up a No. 2 and a No. 3 from Buffalo. The two players acquired in that deal -- S Danieal Manning and DT Dusty Dvorcek -- are still developing players, but neither has proven himself as an NFL starter going into their third season. Both should be starters in 2008, and could improve this ranking. By contrast, Chicago's second pick in the second round -- WR/CB/KR/PR Devin Hester -- is now the team's undisputed star.

Busts
RT Stan Thomas, Texas, 1991. A massive mauler who looked more like a guard than a tackle, Thomas was supposedly "raw but mean" coming out of college. He was a disaster as a pro, heralding a era of mediocre offensive line play.
DE Alonzo Spellman, Ohio State, 1992. He was a physical monster, but Spellman lacked one key attribute: sanity. The guy was absolutely fucking nuts, and not in a good way.
RB Rashaan Salaam, Colorado, 1995. The Heisman Trophy winner rushed for 1,000 yards his rookie season, but fumbling and pot-smoking ruined his career almost immediately.
DE John Thierry, Alcorn State, 1994. You know the scouting insult, "Looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane?" It was based on this guy.
1997, First rounder traded for Rick Mirer. Mirer flashed a bright future his rookie season in Seattle, but his star faded rapidly. Dave Wannstadt figured all the Golden Domer needed was a change of scenery. Whoops.
RB Curtis Enis, Penn State, 1998. Other teams wanted the pick and were offering nice packages for it, but Mark Hadley refused to budge or consider moving down to take Fred Taylor. In a telling display of pig-headed douchebaggery, Hadley picked Enis, who instantly revealed himself to be a major headcase. A true disaster.
QB Cade McNown, UCLA, 1999. This is probably the Bears' worst pick of the modern era, and that's really saying something. Not only did the Bears trade down from the No. 6 pick (passing up on CB Champ Bailey in the process) to get McNown, they gave up their shot at Daunte Culpepper, too. Making matters worse, the front office talked about how much they preferred McNown to the other available QBs, praising his "readiness" for the pro game, gloating about how they thought they'd gotten be best of the 1999 QB class. Thing was, McNown was clearly a punk in college, lacked arm strength, and couldn't lead ants to sugar water. His selection not only set the franchise back three years, it also revealed the height of the organization's arrogance and ineptitude, paving the way for the hiring of Jerry Angelo.
WR David Terrell, Michigan, 2001. Selecting Urlacher in 2000 broke the Bears' unbroken string of stunning fuckups. Picking Terrell in 2001 put them right back on the short bus. Though considered something of a can't-miss prospect by scouts, Terrell didn't fit the Bears offensive scheme and could crack the starting lineup. Though he occasionally flirted with adequacy, Terrell was a massive failure as a player. How much of his trouble was the result of playing for bizarro offensive coordinators Gary Crowton and John Shoop? A goodly portion, no doubt.
DE Michael Haynes, Penn State, 2003. Angelo's decision to trade down from the No. 4 slot had a lot more to do with drafting QB Rex Grossman than it did anything else, which meant the team's first pick in the draft was sort of an afterthought from the get-go. Haynes was a likeable character who made a few memorable plays, but he underachieved in a major way and will always be remembered as That Guy We Drafted Instead of Troy Polamalu.
RB Cedric Benson, Texas, 2005. I will never forget how my joy at the selection of this talented back turned to revulsion and sick horror only minutes after the pick was announced. Benson sat down with an interviewer and proceeded to give one of the worst interviews in the history of draft day, revealing himself as a flaky, self-centered, overly dramatic head-case. He followed this up with a camp holdout, a wasted rookie season, and an injury. In his second season he lost his starting job, feuded with his teammates, played effectively in relief and got knocked out of the Super Bowl with an injury. Finally cleared as the full-time starter in Year No. 3, Benson struggled behind an ineffective offensive line and failed to do anything of substance with his opportunity, averaging a measly 3.4 yards per carry and scoring only four times before exiting with yet another injury. It is unlikely Benson will ever reach his potential in Chicago.

Which leads us to this chart:

1997
We Picked: Trade No. 6 pick for QB Rick Mirer
We could have picked: LT Walter Jones, the Seahawks All Pro, who they selected with our pick.

1998:
We picked: Curtis Enis
We could have picked: RB Fred Taylor, LB Keith Brooking, LB Takeo Spikes, WR Randy Moss, G Alan Faneca.

1999:
We picked: QB Cade McNown
We could have picked: OT John Tait.

2000:
We picked: MLB Brian Urlacher
We could have picked: Nailed it. We got the best player in the draft.

2001:
We picked: WR David Terrell
We could have picked: G Steve Hutchinson, NT Casey Hampton,

2002:
We picked: OT Marc Columbo
We could have picked: DE Kalimba Edwards

2003:
We picked: DE Michael Haynes, QB Rex Grossman
We could have picked: S Troy Polamalu

2004:
We picked: DT Tommie Harris
We could have picked: DT Tommie Harris

2005
We picked: RB Cedric Benson
We could have picked: DE Shawn Merriman

Giving us this lineup in 2007...

LT Walter Jones
LG Steve Hutchinson
C Olin Kruetz
RG Roberto Garza
RT John Tait
TE Greg Olsen
WR Bernard Berrian
WR Muhsin Muhammad
FB Jason McKie
RB Fred Taylor

DE Shawn Merriman
DT Tommie Harris
DT Dusty Dvorcek
DE Wale Ugunleye
LB Hunter Hillenmeyer
MLB Brian Urlacher
LB Lance Briggs
CB Charles Tillman
CB Nathan Vasher
S Troy Polamalu
S Mike Brown

End of the road; Start of another one

For Bears fans, 2007 was just a complete washout, an out-of-gas continuation of 2006, and that means we start a new chapter in 2008. Beating the Packers and the Saints to closed things out on a high note, and I have to admit that I don't feel entirely depressed about our chances next year.

QB
I was convinced that Rex Grossman was gone until injury gave him another chance. I understand that all it takes is one QB hungry team (Carolina?) to take him away as a UFA, but I hope the Bears make a run at him. I'd like to see an open competition for the slot at camp and it would make me happy if Rex progressed and took the job. The more likely situation, however, is that Rex leaves, some other team overpays for Derek Anderson, and we come into camp with Kyle Orton, Brian Griese and someone from the draft. Which means the Bears 2008 season could depend on Orton's progress in the offseason.

I don't like the guys who are listed as 1st round QBs. Joe Flacco, anyone?

RB
Cedric Benson is a bust and Adrian Peterson is a decent backup and special-teams player. Garrett Wolfe has looked OK, but he doesn't jump off the screen at you. In other words, we need a halfback. I'd like to see them target Michael Turner, who looks like a perfect fit for our offense. In fact, I'd pursue two free agents at midnight on the opening of the FA period, and one of them is Turner, a hometown guy.

One more thing. I'm not a fan of Jason McKie. He's a journeyman who is OK as a receiver and runner, but doesn't dominate as a lead blocker. Let's get somebody with some power who can spring someone for some decent gains. Owen Schmidt?

WR
Our wideout didn't really progress this year, and that makes the situation tough to evaluate. Bernard Berrian is our best wideout at the moment, but that isn't saying much. The drops this year were just ridiculous.

So here's my approach: Offer Berrian a good deal, but don't overpay. When he departs, turn to Moose and tell him he's got to renegotiate that contract if he wants to stick around. Look around the free agent market and see if you can get a guy like Patrick Crayton Andre Davis or Jerry Porter. If you can keep Mark Bradley for cheap, do it; if not, say goodbye.

But the key to all of this is Devin Hester. People forget that Steve Smith was originally "just a kick returner." I think Hester can be a three-down player and a starter. He's our best weapon, so why not spend the offseason getting him ready to be the focus of the offense? Coach him up!

TE
This might be our best position group, although Desmond Clark had some inconsistent dropsies. Greg Olsen, on the other hand, is a STUD.

OT
Big John Tait has some tread left on his tires, but he's not a star. Let's say goodbye to Fred Miller, move Tait to right tackle, and get some who can handle the blindside protector position. My preference is to use our first-round pick for a left tackle, but the option is that we go out and acquire Travelle Wharton in free agency. Personally, I'd rather save the money and target a different free agent lineman. John St. Clair is a good backup.

OG
Bye-bye Reuben Brown, Terrance Metcalf and, as far as I'm concerned, Roberto Garza. Brown was the only guard who was worth a damn this year. Maybe Josh Beekman will be something -- he didn't play, so who knows? -- but PLEASE don't let Metcalf get anywhere near Halas Hall in the off-season. We wasted six years on this stiff. CUT HIM! CUT HIM NOW!!!

So how about this: Let's make a big-money run at LG Alan Faneca. Then we'll take our draft picks and be sure to take some guard prospects to challenge Garza's ineffectual ass.

C
Olin Kreutz is smart and tough, but he's not dominant anymore. I figure he's still got some years ahead as a competent player, but he's someone who needs some powerful guard support if he's going to key a dynamic running game.

Can Beekman play center? That might be his best chance with this team: Being versatile, backing up, developing as a center.

DEFENSE

DT
OK, Dusty Dvorchek isn't a household name, but he was supposed to be a big part of our season and we lost him Week 1. I expect Dvorchek, Tommy Harris and a supporting cast to put together a solid 2008 season. We'll be OK in the middle, methinks, with one star and several solid players.

DE
We're over-manned here. Wale Ugunleye and Alex Brown are our best players, and Israel Idonije is a lock to get a roster spot (or should be). You've got to make room for Mark Anderson (who may just be a spot player), plus red-shirt freshman Dan Bauzin. We don't know what he can do. Anyway, short version: Don't draft a DE.

OLB
The guy I really wanted the Bears to draft in 2007 was Patrick Willis, who would have been there had we swapped Briggs for the Redskins' No. 6. But whatever: We'll replace Briggs with Jamar Williams and get a real look at 2007 third-round pick Michael Okwo. Hunter Hillenmeyer is still in the mix, and Brian Urlacher made a statement in December with some huge performances.

But let's get serious about something for a moment: Neither Williams nor Okwo is going to be Briggs in 2008... but Urlacher might be. Translation: Can we experiment a bit and see what kind of linebacker arrangement puts us in the most productive combination? Because Urlacher is a great weakside linebacker playing in the middle.

I'm not opposed to drafting a middle linebacker this year, but it's not a requirement. Basically, we need Williams to progress, and we need to see if Okwo can play.

CB
This one is simple: We suffered without Nathan Vasher in the lineup and we'll be better when he's healthy for 2008. Vasher and Peanut Tillman are locked up, along with Ricky Manning Jr., and Corey Graham/Trumane McBride provide decent, cheap depth. Leave this alone.

Safeties
Make Mike Brown an offer: Low salary, short term, lots of incentives for playing time. If he takes it, install him at free safety. If he doesn't, let him go with appreciation and class. After that, don't assume that we've got a second starting safety on the roster. Let Danieal Manning and Kevin Payne compete, but don't count on either being more than a backup. Look for safeties in the draft, in free agency.

It would be great if Manning, a second-round pick, stepped up and became a player. It would be great if Payne, who had an impressive camp, proves he was worth getting rid of Chris Harris last summer.

But let's get aggressive about safety. And that starts by cutting Adam Archuleta.

Specialists
Patrick Mannelly is one of the all-time great long-snappers and he looks like he could go forever. Brad Maynard is a veteran kicker. Keep him. And Robbie Gould, despite his spindly leg, is an excellent clutch field goal kicker. Getting a new halfback would move Adrian Peterson back into a meaningful coverage role. Yes, we'll lose Brandon Ayanbedajo. Life sucks like that. Invest in finding his replacement via the draft. Devin Hester is one of our greatest players since Walter Payton.

FREE AGENT PRIORITIES

1. Pursue Michael Turner and Alan Faneca with big-money contracts.

2. Investigate the availability of Derek Anderson, but don't overpay for him.

3. Try to re-sign Rex Grossman and Bernard Berrian, but not at crazy prices.

4. If Berrian leaves, consider signing a veteran free agent WR.

5. If it's unlikely we'll get a quality left tackle at our first-round position in April, then pursue Travelle Wharton.

DRAFT PRIORITIES

Round 1: Offensive left tackle.

Round 2 - 3: Quarterback, guard, safety

Round 4-5: Fullback, linebacker,

Round 6-7: Safety, safety, safety

2007 Bears Draft

About a week ago I wrote up what I wanted from the Bears on draft day(s). Here's how things turned out...

TRADE LANCE BRIGGS: ... the rules are a mess and he's not going to contribute and I'm much more interested in winning a Super Bowl, thank you. I'd take Washington's No. 6 pick and Rocky McIntosh for Briggs and our No. 31, but I'd also take Denver's No. 21 pick, straight up, and just go from there.

OK, so Briggs stayed with us. And maybe we'll crack through this situation and get Briggs signed for a Super Bowl run in 2007. Whatever. This is just one of those situations where management needs to handle things with vision and integrity to prevent a contract issue from becoming a locker room problem. Something -- and I'm not sure what that something was -- made me more optimistic this weekend on the prospects of getting Briggs signed to a long-term deal.

DRAFT OFFENSIVE LINEMEN: If we stick around in the 30s, remember these names: Blaylock, Grubbs, Sears and Staley. Any one of those would make me happy at 31 or 37.

As it turned out, Grubbs and Staley were all gone by 31 and Sears went at 35. Blaylock would have been a solid pickup at 37 (he went 39), but the Bears apparently liked their chances better in the move-down with San Diego. I agree.

Blaylock was probably the least promising prospect in that second tier of four or five offensive linemen the experts kept talking about. Instead we wound up with Josh Beekman in the 4th round, and there's every reason to be as optimistic about Beekman as there was about Blaylock. Neither was a lock to be a starter, but Beekman has the traits you want in an NFL lineman. I'm optimistic.

We also picked up Arron Brant, a right tackle out of Iowa State, with our final pick. Nobody seems to know anything about him right now, but he's big and bald and that's got to count for something.

Bottom line: This team still needs some big-time young tackles, but they weren't there at 31. Kudos to the Bears for not reaching for one.

WAIT ON THE OLBS: This isn't a great top-end linebacker class, and drafting one with the first or second pick might be a reach. Waiting to draft a developmental project (like Briggs) in the 3rd or 4th round would make more sense.

Boy, did this one work out (on paper, anyway). I did experience a moment of excitement early in the second round when it looked like Paul Posluzny might drop to us, but once he was gone I relaxed again and hoped that we'd wind up with Quincy Black in the third or fourth round. Tampa nabbed him early in the 3rd, but c'est la vie. I'd rather have our second-round pick -- DE Daniel Bazuin, about whom I have a really good feeling -- than Black.

Winding up with Michael Okwo in the 3rd round is exactly the kind of personnel situation I'd been hoping for. If Briggs comes back, Okwo gives us an underrated guy who was productive in college and comes with the right intangibles. Here's the thing about linebackers, guards and safeties: athleticism and size are nice to have, but instincts and intelligence are often a lot more important.

If Briggs sits out training camp, Okwo will get a chance to compete for the starting weakside position. Not bad for the late third round.

AVOID THE WIDE RECEIVERS: Everybody seems to think that the Bears need to draft another wide receiver high. Stop the madness. Berrian, Bradley, Davis and Moose are not the problem. Throwing another player into that mix doesn't advance us as a team... unless that player is Calvin Johnson. Which it won't be.

This draft had Johnson and about a million wide receivers I've never heard of. There's a chance that one of them is the next Marques Colston, but I wouldn't bet on it. Good job of not doing the wrong thing, Jerry.

DON'T PANIC ON TIGHT ENDS: The only TE with a margin first round grade is Olsen of Miami, and he's going to go too high anyway. Look for receiving tight ends with good athletic abilities late.

I didn't seriously think that Olsen was going to drop to the end of the round, and I don't think most of the experts did, either. But once Carolina decided to draft for need with OLB Jon Beason at 25, the way was paved for Olsen to fall into our waiting arms. Here's another thing that played out in our favor: Joe Horn leaving New Orleans meant that the Saints needed a WR to fill that spot at 27.

With the Saints out of the way, the next three teams were all teams with tight end studs, and one of them (New England) traded away the 28th pick to a team that just drafted a TE at No. 6 in 2006.

I think we'll get quite a bit out of this pick -- provided we can get him signed.

DRAFT A SCAT BACK: Benson is a full-service back with a strong suit in strength, not open-field speed. Peterson is a bowling ball. Complete the set with a smaller back who can break the long run and get lost in traffic.

Garrett Wolfe was the guy I had in mind when I wrote those words, but I didn't want to jinx it. When I look at him I don't see a guy who is too small, or Leon Washington, or even Warrick Dunn. I see visions of Dennis Gentry, one of the most underrated members of the dynasty Bears from the 1980s.

Wolfe will be a productive and extremely popular player in Chicago for the next five years. He may not own an elite 40 time, (neither did Devin Hester for that matter) but he's magic in the open field and can dart around between the tackles if used properly.

WHAT ABOUT THE DRAFT AS A WHOLE? Olsen was a gift, and the only guy I would have preferred above him in that late-round group (Staley) went at 28. Bazuin wasn't a need pick at all (he actually creates a traffic jam at DE), but I've got a great feeling about him as a player. Wolfe, Okwo and Beekman all look like contributors.

The second day is harder to judge, but I like the sound of a safety whose last name is Payne. Corey Graham looks like a project and I don't expect much there. That last guy -- Brant -- is just an unknown.

I grade the whole thing a B, and the only reason I've got it down from an A is that the Briggs situation remains unresolved. Settle that and I'll be one happy fan.

Draft, Briggs, etc.

Dear Mr. Angelo:

All I want from the 2007 NFL Draft is:

TRADE LANCE BRIGGS: Yes, the guy can play. Yes, you're within your rights under the rules to keep him. But the rules are a mess and he's not going to contribute and I'm much more interested in winning a Super Bowl, thank you. I'd take Washington's No. 6 pick and Rocky McIntosh for Briggs and our No. 31, but I'd also take Denver's No. 21 pick, straight up, and just go from there.

DRAFT OFFENSIVE LINEMEN: Let's say we're at No. 6. There will be a guy named Levi Brown sitting there. And guess what? If you can get from No. 6 to No. 5, there's a left tackle named Joe Thomas who might be very interesting. If we stick around in the 30s, remember these names: Blaylock, Grubbs, Sears and Staley. Any one of those would make me happy at 31 or 37.

WAIT ON THE OLBS: This isn't a great top-end linebacker class, and drafting one with the first or second pick might be a reach. Waiting to draft a developmental project (like Briggs) in the 3rd or 4th round would make more sense.

AVOID THE WIDE RECEIVERS: Everybody seems to think that the Bears need to draft another wide receiver high. Stop the madness. Berrian, Bradley, Davis and Moose are not the problem. Throwing another player into that mix doesn't advance us as a team... unless that player is Calvin Johnson. Which it won't be.

DON'T PANIC ON TIGHT ENDS: The only TE with a margin first round grade is Olsen of Miami, and he's going to go too high anyway. Look for receiving tight ends with good athletic abilities late.

DRAFT A SCAT BACK: Benson is a full-service back with a strong suit in strength, not open-field speed. Peterson is a bowling ball. Complete the set with a smaller back who can break the long run and get lost in traffic.

OFF-SEASON REPORT: Bears, Briggs, bucks and blockers

OUR STORY SO FAR: With the team's heavy 2008 off-season agenda well in Jerry Angelo's mind, the Bears sat out 2007's early, big-bucks free agency period. Angelo then made three budget-wise moves, acquiring discounted safety Adam Archeleta from Washington for a 6th rounder, re-signing veteran LG Reuben Brown and adding free agent DT Anthony Adams. Meanwhile, the franchising of WLB Lance Briggs turned into a Midway freak show, with Briggs and his agent threatening all manner of retribution on the team and -- eventually -- brokering a significant offer from the Redskins for the disgruntled Pro Bowler. And in the background, two quiet stirrings about significant changes on the horizon: Whispers about Devin Hester on offense and Danieal Manning at corner...

WHY DOES 2008 MATTER? Because several key Bears will have to be signed to extensions before the end of the 2007 season. Decisions are due on Rex Grossman, Charles Tillman and Nathan Vasher, and there are other players (Tommie Harris and Bernard Berrian come to mind) who probably should get long-term offers sooner rather than later.

WHY THEY FRANCHISED BRIGGS: Briggs is a better-than-good player who came up big in some key situations (remember that 4th-down stop in the 4th quarter against the Seahawks?), but he may not be the great player he considers himself to be. Is he one of the league's top five linebackers? Nope, and the Bears know it. And here's the other thing: Beyond the salary cap issues of giving Briggs more than $33 million (with something like $16 million guaranteed) over seven years, there's the Urlacher Factor. Chicago's best linebacker isn't even in the Top 5 when it comes to linebacker salaries. He's No. 8. Does anybody out there think it makes much sense to pay another Bears linebacker more than Urlacher gets?

WHAT DO THE BEARS NEED IN 2007? Acquiring Archeleta and Adams -- a 4-3 tackle who was useless in the 49ers' 3-4 system -- took two of the team's injury issues out of the "Screaming Need" category. Chicago let a lot of quality backup talent leave their safety and defensive tackle ranks this off-season, and with question marks surrounding starters Mike Brown, Tommie Harris and Tank Johnson, they needed some veteran bodies.

Beyond that, Angelo needs to shore up an aging offensive line and find starter-quality contributors for the linebacking corps. Chicago needs depth at safety, depth at running back, and apparently a never-ending supply of defensive tackles who can collapse the pocket in Smith's signature defensive alignment.

WHY THE BEARS SHOULD DEAL BRIGGS TO THE REDSKINS: This isn't about ego, or who "wins" in the off-season. Chicago turned college-underachiver Briggs into an NFL star and now for various reasons can't realistically afford to pay the inflated market value to secure his services long-term. With the over-eager Redskins ready to over-pay for him, Angelo is in a position to get value out of the linebacker instead of merely a Pyhrric victory.

But Washington's initial offer -- while serious -- doesn't really serve the Bears' interests. With nothing in the cupboard to replace Briggs and no great linebacker options in either free agency or the top of the draft, Angelo would almost be forced to trade down from Washington's No. 6 slot and use a high pick on someone who could challenge the team's current backups for Briggs' spot.

Given the "value" assigned to picks (No. 6 = 1,600 points; No. 31 = 600), the difference in the swap equals the 16th pick in the draft. Not bad, but not quite what you'd expect for a three-time Pro Bowler in the prime of his career. So how do you even this deal out?

As Pat Kirwan wisely surmised, the solution is for Washington to include the player who would move to the bench to make room for Briggs: 6th year pro Lemar Marshall, an underrated player who notched 202 tackles in the past two seasons.

Everybody wins. Marshall becomes the Bears' new WLB. Washington gets his salary off their books and solves a potential lockerroom problem. And most importantly, Chicago gets to do what you want to do with the No. 6 pick overall: Draft a player who immediately improves your team.

WHAT TO DO WITH THE NO. 6 PICK: Drafting a player who improves your team right away isn't the same thing as drafting the best player available. In Chicago's case, that means going after a player with the ability to start in Week 1 and lock down a position for the better part of a decade. My nomination is Levi Brown, a 6-4, 328-pound left tackle from Penn State.

Brown isn't the best left tackle prospect this year (Joe Thomas, a consensus Top 5 pick, is), but most experts have him off the board in the Top 10. He had a down 2006 because of a knee injury, but it was a meniscus tear, not an ACL. If anything the guy is a value at the top of this draft, with analysts describing him as a future Pro Bowler.

Since Brown isn't generally considered a Top 6 pick, the Bears could be in position to trade down a spot or two if a team wants to move up and get QB Brady Quinn.

Acquiring a player like Brown would give Chicago the opportunity to improve two positions. Put Brown at his natural left tackle position and move Big John Tait to his natural position on the right.

Remember: The Bears want to be a run-first team, and for all their craftiness as pass blockers, Chicago's O-line was weak when it came to mauling other teams in straight-ahead short yardage. Their best short-yardage play in 2006? Pulling Reuben Brown to the right. Everybody knew it, and that's not good.

The question I have is, if Joe Thomas is there at No. 5, should Chicago attempt to move up and get him?

WHAT ELSE SHOULD CHICAGO DO? Well, for starters, Roberto Garza has been a disappointment at right guard, and backup Terrance Metcalf has been unable to step up and claim the position. Chicago picks again at No. 37 (thanks to the Thomas Jones trade), and if one of the Top 3 guards is still on the board (quite possible), I'd rather see the Bears pick one of them than chase the uninspiring linebackers who are expected to be hanging around early in the second.

Draft a linebacker or two, but do it later. And make sure to look for a game-changing "third-down back" on Day 2. Someone, like, say... Garrett Wolfe of Northern Illinois.

WHAT ABOUT QUARTERBACK? Oh, shut-up already. Quarterback is the one position where we're actual stable, healthy and deep, with a great mixture of proven ability and potential.

Bears on the Bubble

Mark Anderson: He starred as a rookie playmaker. In his second year, he'll need to contend for a starting spot and extended playing time. Does he have the ability to supplant either Ugunleye or Brown at defensive end? Or will he continue to contribute as a sub?

Cedric Benson: An injured shoulder in training camp recast his role as Option B, and after he regained his health, Benson flashed signs of power-back brilliance. But the No. 4 pick overall is expected to be more than just a strong second option. Can he continue to improve in Chicago's two-back rotation?

Mark Bradley: After demonstrating special talent in his injury-shortened rookie season, Bradley's sophomore campaign was frustrating and confusing. On the one hand, he got only 14 catches. On the other, he averaged 20 yards per catch and scored three times. If he can get back on track, the Bears have a potential pair of bookends in Bradley and Berrian. So mark 2007 as a watershed year for Bradley. If he catches on, then he'll replace Muhammad in 2008. If he doesn't, the front office won't wait for him.

Lance Briggs: That franchise tag keeps Briggs with the Bears for another season, but you have to wonder why they didn't just pay him and get him locked down under a long-term deal. Franchised players are always worth watching, because they can respond to the tag in odd ways.

Alex Brown: See Mark Anderson. Brown is a good player, but he isn't a true star at DE. Does he deserve to be the guy who gets to pressure the QB's blind side?

Mike Brown: A fan favorite. A smart guy. The No. 2 pick behind Urlacher in 2000. But can he come back from injury again and be all that he was? Can the team still plan around him? Brown has never gotten by on measureables, so this looks like a tough call in the offseason.

Ruben Brown: He's had a 13-year Hall of Fame career, and finished 2007 stronger than he started it, but will the Bears bring him back with a new contract? It depends on what's available out there (Hello, Eric Steinbach), but Angelo shouldn't expect that other teams will wait around for him to make up his mind. Brown is a legit left guard with at least another season in him.

Dez Clark: After three journeyman seasons with the Bears, Clark had the best year of his pro career in 2006. Yet everyone expects that Angelo will target a young tight end in the draft. My gut feeling is that Clark is one of the most under-rated players on the team, as his clutch catches and overlooked downfield blocking demonstrated. The Bears will add a tight end in April, but Clark will probably retain his starting job.

Dusty Dvoracek: Tommie Harris' college roommate impressed observers in mini-camps but broke down in training camp and spent his rookie year on IR. With the turmoil on the defensive line, Dvoracek remains an interesting option. But is he the real thing, or just a mirage?

Rex Grossman: If the Bears had played a normal season in 2006, lots of people might be talking about the progress demonstrated by this young quarterback. How he shook off two years of injury and rehab. How he was the league's offensive player for the month of September. How he became only the fifth Bear QB to throw for 3,000 yards in a season. Instead, he's mocked as the worst quarterback in Super Bowl history. How will he react to the way he's been treated in Chicago? Grossman could be good or bad in 2007, and I simply can't predict.

Tommie Harris: Two questions: Can he come back 100 percent from this freaky hamstring injury, and what happened to his production in the month prior to his injury?

Tank Johnson: For all his notoriety, Tank was just an OK player in 2006, and after all that sturm und drang, he's an RFA. Is he a better than average DT, or just another plug-in component?

Danieal Manning: Most years, the Bears' top draft choice would get lots of attention if he started 16 games. Danieal Manning was an afterthought behind Devin Hester and Mark Anderson. The question: Did Manning play because he was that good, or because nobody else was? He has incredible gifts, but he got blown up on some big plays all year, leaving a mixed impression. We know he's good. But can he be a franchise star?

Ricky Manning Jr.: The good news is that RMJ notched seven interceptions despite playing only as a nickel back. The bad news is that when we traded for him last year, we never got around to re-doing his contract. Now he's a UFA, and cornerbacks with his skills are hard to find. Keeping Manning for a second year is going to be expensive, but it's a must-do.

Fred Miller: He's almost the prototypical veteran at right tackle -- an aging player with average gifts and superb toughness who has made a career out of getting it right more often than not. He's physical and smart, but he just wasn't the kind of player who consistently delivered a big push on running plays. The thing with Miller is, he's only the second-best right tackle on the team (left tackle John Tait is playing out of position). If the Bears sign a right tackle, Miller faces competition. If the Bears sign a left tackle, ditto.

Adewale Ongunleye: When the Bears dealt for him, he looked like he might become a great defensive end. Now he merely looks like a good one. The Bears have three good DEs. Can one of them become great?

Ian Scott: Scott is a quality prospect at defensive tackle, and intelligent too. But will the Bears invest in him or will he move on as a UFA?

John Tait: Big John is in decent shape for a 32-year-old tackle, but he's really only adequate as a blindside pass blocker. Though he's played the left for two years because that's where the team needed him, he knows his best position is on the right. Will this be the year the Bears make a move for a big left tackle and move Tait to his natural spot?

Top Free Agent possibilities
LT Leonard Davis. A famous underachiever in Arizona, Davis is the former No. 2 overall pick in 2001. At 6-6, 365 pounds, "Big" is even big by NFL standards, and he's no slouch as an athlete. That said, he's as memorable for his false-start penalties as he is for his road-grader blocking style. In other words, he's the best tackle on the market and stands to cash in big on his potential... even if his performance suggests a smaller sum. But you don't have to go very far (Hello, Thomas Jones) to find former Cardinals whose careers improved as soon as they got away from Bill Bidwell. Does the Bears coaching staff have what it takes to get the goods out of this guy?

LG Eric Steinbach. The Bengals' guard is athletic and skilled and could even play tackle. But he's listed at less than 300 pounds and appears to be a notch below the elite level... which is probably why the Bengals are willing to let him go.

As expensive as these two might be, the Bears are expected to be about $27 million under the salary cap. That's probably enough to sign both these guys... particularly if they're not able to resign Ricky Manning Jr. And since both Davis and Steinbach are young players entering the prime of life for offensive linemen, even a big investment could pay off longterm dividends.

Imagine this line: Davis, Steinbach, Kreutz, Garcia and Tait. That's not just a moderate improvement -- that's a transformative event for the offense, upgrading three positions with two signings.

Bears draft needs
It's crazy to do this before the free agent signing period opens, but assuming the team signs at least one offensive lineman immediately, this is what we're looking at as our shopping list for 2007:

1. First-day developmental OL prospect
2. Cornerback (assuming Ricky Manning Jr. leaves town)
3. Linebacker
4. Tight end
5. Safety
6. Defensive tackle
   
7. Another linebacker

2007 Bears: After the flood

OK, so back in August I was more right than wrong, but... Geez, was I wrong. I predicted the Bears would beat the Colts in the Super Bowl. I predicted it in August. I predicted it in February. I was still predicting it in the fourth quarter of that demoralizing loss.

But now that's over, the pain is fading, and the 2007 off-season is underway. So let's set the table for what should be an intriguing year.

COACHING: Job No. 1 for the front office is signing Coach Smith to a long-term deal, and it needs to be a respectable contract. Something just shy of the super-star money that gets paid to legends who come back from the TV booth, and heavy on stability. If we're lucky, we'll get a decade out of Lovie.

By the way, letting DC Ron Rivera go was a painful move, but a good one. Two words: Panthers, Colts. Babich should be an appropriate replacement. The second-most important coaching contract on this staff? Wade Wilson, quarterbacks coach. Keep him, because he's the most important person in Rex Grossman's world right now.

FRONT OFFICE: Jerry Angelo deserves a long-term contract too. He's got his coach. Pair their destinies.

QUARTERBACK: Never in my life have I seen a successful young quarterback take the media whipping that Rex Grossman received before, during and after the Super Bowl. This isn't just a conversational topic, either: As media and fans, we're on the verge of destroying the best quarterback the Bears have had since Eric Kramer. Grossman should face an open competition for the starting job in training camp, but Angelo should resist calls to bring in yet another veteran free agent. Let the three QBs on the roster duke it out for the top spot this summer, and don't be surprised when Grossman emerges as the starter and a Pro Bowl selection. I think he has the ability to be a better than average quarterback, and that's saying a lot for a Bears signal caller.

RUNNING BACK: Looks like we'll have another year of the Jones & Benson show, and that's fine by me. Two backs are better than one these days.

WIDE RECEIVER: Don't look now, but Muhsin Muhammad has been fading for the past two years. I'm not anxious to do anything about that -- he's still a contributor and a leader. But we need to find out whether Mark Bradley has the stuff to make it as an eventual starter. Bernard Berrian is a keeper, and if Bradley can match his progress, then the Bears will go into 2007 four-deep at the position.

TIGHT END: Desmond Clark had a good year, but there's no doubt that we need to address this position early in the draft.

OFFENSIVE LINE: Expect a veteran free agent signing and at least one first-day draft pick. O-Line is one of the most over-rated positions on the squad -- and the oldest. Eric Steinbach of the Bengals is an intriguing prospect (so long as we keep him at his natural guard position), and left tackle Leonard Davis of the Cardinals would allow John Tait to move back to right guard. This unit needs an upgrade and an injection of youth.

DEFENSIVE LINE: The pass rush went on hiatus in October and seldom reared its fearsome head after a hot early start. Take away rookie situational pass rusher Mark Anderson and this unit was downright weak when it came to pressure. Obviously the key here is Tommie Harris, but the D-line was actually playing quite average football before his injury. I'm not saying the defensive line is weak, but there are question marks here. My gut feeling? The D-Line played strong in September, but when offensive coordinators got good tape on them, they got gameplanned into spotty performances. Chicago got great success by moving Anderson around in obvious pass rushing situations, but for the most part, this line got neutralized. This is actually the place where Angelo will have to make some important decisions early, since Alfonso Boone and Ian Scott are both Unrestricted Free Agents who will garner interest around the league, while celebrity bad-boy Tank Johnson is an RFA.

LINEBACKER: With two premiere players, it's easy to identify the linebacking corps as a strength. I call it a need area. Hunter Hillenmeyer is a serviceable starter, once you get past him there's really nothing much to talk about. Chicago needs linebacker depth and can't afford to look at this position as just another place to stash special teams talent. Here's hoping the Bears hunt up a veteran free agent for depth and invest in more talent in the draft. One final, crazy thought: I'm not convinced that Brian Urlacher wouldn't be a better player at the weakside.

CORNERBACK: I'm very happy with this situation... or I should be. Chicago comes in with three legitimate corners, plus talented depth in Devin Hester. None of the Bears' CBs have that kind of Ty Law/Champ Bailey shut-down skill, but they're extremely talented within a Tampa Two. The problem: Nickel Ricky Manning Jr. is an unrestricted free agent, and a better CB than most teams have at starter. What happens if his price creates conflict with the contracts for Tillman and Vasher? Can we even keep him?

SAFETY: Here's a wild card. What's Mike Brown's future with the team? As far as I'm concerned, a Bears defense with Brown and Harris would have shut down Peyton Manning on some of those third downs (just look at what Bob Sanders meant for the Colts), but that's pie in the sky thinking. Can Brown make it back? Can he make it through a complete season? Manning was an overlooked contributor as a rookie starter, and Chris Harris is only in his second season, but neither is a proven star, and Todd Johnson looks like a big hitter without much else right now (he's also a restricted free agent).

PUNT/KICK COVERAGE & RETURN: I don't think there's a better group of special teamers in the league than the combo of Brendan Ayanbedejo, Adrian Peterson, Dante Wesley, Israel Idonije and Patrick Mannelly. They get after opponents, make good decisions and give the Bears a fantastic weapon. Even without Devin Hester, these guys are difference-makers. And Hester is a game-changing performer.

PUNTER: Brother Maynard doesn't put up gaudy stats. Who cares? He's a reliable, effective punter.

KICKER: Robbie Gould was merely a short-range option as a rookie. In his second-year, he turned in an All Pro kicker, despite not having a great leg for the long bombers. What will he become in is third season?

O. My. Gawd...

If you witnessed last night's demolition of the NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks, you know what I'm talking about. Before last night the only knock I had on the Bears so far in 2006 was the quality of their opponents. Well, put that one to bed. They didn't just beat the Seahawks in Chicago -- they put on a clinic.

I was immediately reminded of a similar game in 1985. The 1984 Bears had gone to the playoffs, but still hadn't earned much national respect. Then about midway through the 1985 season, the eventual Super Bowl champions blew out the Cowboys 44-0. The game made the cover of Sports Illustrated that week, and the football world finally began to give them a little love. Within weeks, the Bears were media darlings.

John Madden opened the game with non-commital remarks about Bears QB Rex Grossman, basically telling the national TV audience that he was still in "show-me" mode about the NFL's Offensive Player of the Month for September. By the end of the third quarter Madden was making multiple comparisons between Grossman and the object of Madden's ultimate man-crush, future Hall of Famer Brett Favre.

The Bears are on their way to the kind of season I predicted back in training camp, but here's the part that's left me slack-jawed: As good as I thought they'd be, they're better. They're one of the two best teams in the NFL right now, and if they stay healthy, they'll keep getting better.

Hang on...