The Bears are the best team in football, and no, I am not smoking crack

I'm a partisan when it comes to the Chicago Bears, which traditionally makes me a poor prognosticator. I typically think they're going to be better than they are.

Not this year.

Here are 16 reasons why the Chicago Bears will finish with the best record in the NFL in 2006 and will win Super Bowl XLI come February 2007:

16. The easiest schedule in the NFL (.445 winning percentage), and the easiest graded schedule against run defenses in the league.

It gets better. Six of the team's games are against NFC North opponents, each of which are in the first year of new coaching eras. Other teams with first-year coaches on this year's schedule include Buffalo, St. Louis and the New York Jets. Plus, the team opens and closes with division opponents Green Bay and Detroit. No way the Bears treat their Dec. 31 game against the Packers at Soldier Field as a pre-playoff bye-week.

Chicago will sweep its division this year. Its biggest challenge from October on will be remaining focused and beating Carolina to the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

15. Coaching continuity. Only one member of the coaching staff departed in the off-season, giving everyone in the organization a well-needed shot of ordinariness. This is particularly meaningful at the coordinator level, where Ron Rivera enters what will be his last season as an assistant and Ron Turner gets a second year running the offense.

14. Everybody is signed. Sure, a hold-out first round rookie is still valuable, but look at what happened to Benson after he missed 2005 training camp: minimal utility, poor relationships, frustration and -- ultimately -- injury. To get the most out of your rookies, your rookies must be signed and practicing. No team wrapped up its rookie contact situation faster than Chicago this year. Trading down out of the first round is looking like a pretty good move (DISCLOSURE: I didn't think so at the time).

13. The best defense in football just got better. Only a lay-down game against the Vikings in Week 17 last year prevented the Bears from earning the statistical title of "best defense in the league," and in 2006 the unit will run away with that title. While the defense returned all 11 of its starters, the thing to watch this offseason is the development of 2nd round safety Danieal Manning. One of the early stars of training camp, Manning appears ready to challenge for Chris Harris' starting spot, and even if he doesn't win it outright, expect to see him earn significant playing time.

In fact, the entire defensive backfield -- a good group in 2005 -- appears to be significantly upgraded. Chicago has three legitimate cornerbacks in Nathan Vasher, Peanut Tillman and restricted free agent signing Ricky Manning Jr., but veteran pickup Dante Wesley is playing well enough to get a second look as a frontline player. That's without even talking about rookie Devin Hester, who shows talent but is probably a developmental project.

If this unit has a weakness it's linebacker depth and the SAM position, where Hunter Hillenmeyer is a solid journeyman on a team of blue chippers. Between its freakishly deep backfield, its all-world middle linebacker and its pressure-first defensive line, this group looks like a lock to lead the league in takeaways.

12. The worst unit on the team has been upgraded -- and no, we're not talking about the offense. Chicago's special teams in 2005 were a disaster, and the team made smart moves in the offseason to turn that around. In addition to bringing back special teams stars Brendan Ayanbedejo and Adrian Peterson, Jerry Angelo brought in Carolina Panthers special teamer Dante Wesley and drafted returners Danieal Manning and Devin Hester in the second round. Punt return fumbles cost the team at least one victory last year, and with Jerry Azumah sidelined with a career-ending injury, the already-struggling offense seldom started with a short field. Hester's ability to cleanly field punts will be a boost, and if he begins to flash the gamebreaking ability he showed in college, field position will improve immediately. The team has a veteran punter and longsnapper, and if it has a glaring weakness it's at place kicker. Robbie Gould was a reliable short-range option when called upon last year, but he has a weak leg and Smith lacked confidence in his ability to convert kicks from beyond 40 yards.

11. Cedric Benson is the right back for the Turner offense. I've been a Thomas Jones fan since before he arrived in Chicago, contending for years that Jones was a star waiting for the right situation. Brought in to be the feature back in Terry Shea's version of the "Greatest Show on Turf" in 2004, I thought he'd found that perfect fit. Wrong. Every QB on the team got hurt, and it didn't help that Shea turned out to be a freakazoid, but despite the meltdown, Jones finally had a good year. In 2005, Jones demonstrated elite skills in yet another hamstrung offense, breaking more long runs and grinding up more yardage than any Bear back since Walter Payton. And yet it was obvious that Jones is far better suited for a different kind of offensive playbook.

Benson is really no larger than No. 20, and he lacks Jones' breakaway speed. Yet watching him run at training camp you can almost sense the Turner offense coallescing around him. While Jones could be a tough inside runner with a high pain threshold, Benson seems to thrive on contact. Jones wanted the corner; Benson lowers his shoulder. Jones is a home run hitter who would thrive in a wide-open scheme. Benson is a franchise halfback perfectly suited for a team based around a great defense.

10. Thomas Jones. If the Bears trade him, Jones can bring in talent to upgrade another position (Ashley Lelie isn't my favorite wide receiver, but his 19.3 ypc average would sure give Muhsin Muhammad room to operate). If the Bears keep him, Jones is either the best 2nd string running back in football or a prototype third-down guy. Having two top RBs is a luxury the Bears might not be able to afford, but if they can, imagine how strong the team will be in the fourth quarter defending a seven-point lead. Plus, Jones is a smart guy: Those Super Bowl bonuses are generous, and they don't look bad on a contract renegotiation sheet, either.

9. Drama. The Thomas Jones/Cedric Benson soap opera was inevitable this summer, but this situation simply could not have played out better for Benson or the team. Jones was a popular veteran in 2005 and Benson was a weird no-show rookie, but anybody who has ever spent any time around the NFL knows that the Bears needed the former No. 4 pick to step up and take the position this year. By sitting out the OTAs and succumbing to a stealth hammy on his first day of camp, Jones has given Benson the opportunity to confront his critics head-on -- literally -- on the practice field. Camp observers have noted extra pop in the hits delivered on and by Benson, who is having a solid camp against the best defense in football. With Jones standing silently on the sidelines, Benson is earning the respect of his teammates. Friendship and bonding? Let's not go that far. Both Benson and Jones seem to walk around with outsized chips on their shoulders, but an undercurrent of tension and drama animates great teams, just as too much of those qualities will tear lesser teams apart. Whether Jones remains or is traded, expect Benson to play 2006 like a personal statement.

8. Rusty Jones. The first year of the Lovie Smith era fell apart under a rash of injuries, but the 2006 Bears stayed remarkably healthy thanks to Strength and Conditioning coordinator Rusty Jones. Jones is the best in the business, and he's had two years to re-engineer the workouts of his veteran stars. Not only are players like Mike Brown and Brian Urlacher healthy and fit, they're doing exercises that should reduce their chance of on-the-field injuries. It's no coincidence that the one guy to pull a hamsting on Day 1 was Thomas Jones, a workout fanatic who wasn't at Halas Hall in the offseason, working under Rusty Jones' watchful eye.

7. Offensive cohesion. By most accountings, the Bears' offensive line is a mediocre group of guys who aren't getting any younger. Unlike other units on the team, this one wasn't built via the draft, and though it has been workmanlike, it hasn't exactly gelled. Yet by sticking together, this is a unit that can only improve. All of these guys are in their second or third years together now, and that kind of experience makes a big difference in your overall offensive performance.

The same can be said about the offense remaining under the same OC. Or the fact that all the wide receivers have been with the team for more than five minutes. But the No. 1 element in this year's offensive cohesion is the return of Rex Grossman and the signing of Brian Griese. Even if Grossman falls or falls short, Griese is similar enough in style and ability that the offense will remain largely the same. Kyle Orton's rookie campaign required editing the playbook and abandoning much of what Turner had hoped to accomplish with Grossman. That won't happen this year.

6. Minimal improvement in the passing game will pay huge dividends. As Orton's season wound down last year it was obvious that the rookie wasn't playing up to the standards he had set for himself in September and October. The Bears were unable to mount a consistant aerial threat, and all aspects of the offense bogged down.

But just improving third-down efficiency -- the most important passing statistic in my book -- would have far ranging effects. The Bears finished 31st in 3rd down percentage, converting less than 29 percent of their 215 attempts. That's more punts, more low-probability field goal attempts, worse field position, more fourth-down desperation.

Now, imagine what happens if the Bears move into the middle of the pack. Baltimore finished 16th in 3rd down conversion last season with a 39.1 percent rate. What if Chicago had matched that rate? Check it out: That's 22 additional first downs on top of the 62 we converted last year, and many of those drives will generate more first downs and 3rd down conversion attempts. Combine that with improved defense and special teams and you're talking about a team that will dominate the field position, time of possession and takeaway battles.

5. Moose's hand has healed. Nobody talked about it last season, but Muhsin Muhammad broke his hand in the Cincinnati game on Sept. 25, then broke it again in the playoffs. It was Muhammad's worst year ever in terms of drops (I think he was saddled with eight, officially), and that doesn't count the "uncatchable" balls that Muhammad used to go and snag for quarterbacks like Jake Delhomme, but just couldn't pull down for Kyle Orton. A healthy, happy Muhammad is a dangerous weapon.

4. The No. 2 wide reciever we don't have in 2006 is better than the No. 2 wide receiver we didn't have in 2005. Last year opened with prospect Justin Gage opposite Muhammad, second-year man Bernard Berrian still looking for playing experience and rookie Mark Bradley coming off an impressive pre-season. Hell, even Bobby Wade was in the mix. This year's training camp battle is between two speedsters, Berrian and Bradley, and both have proven their ability to stretch NFL defenses and make big plays. Even if the two Bs split the 2006 season at the second wideout, it's a better situation than we had last year. And remember: A trade for disgruntled big-play WR Ashley Lelie is not out of the question.

3. Lovie Smith learns. In his first season, Smith brought in unproven coaches and ran his players until their hamstrings popped like guitar strings. But when the season ended, Smith showed that he had learned something from the experience. He hired Rusty Jones, dumped Terry Shea, brought back Ron Turner and changed the way he ran his training camp and his football program. None of this looked all that dramatic to observers outside the organization, but the moves were effective. The amateur-hour days of 2004 are gone, replaced by adults and veterans in 2006. There is a sense this summer that Smith and Angelo are working off a common set of notes, that every action and move represents part of a larger plan. For the first time in forever, the Bears look professional.

2. The Carolina loss. Chicago lost at home to Carolina in the playoffs because the defense literally fell down on the job. Slips, stumbles and blown assignments gave the Panthers 21 points and forced the Bears to play from behind from the opening series. And yet... and yet the offense still managed to make a game of it, challenging a respectable Panthers defense, putting 21 points on the board and falling just short of a miraculous 4th quarter comeback.

In the offseason, Chicago concentrated on improving its defensive backfield -- no more coverage nightmares for these guys. It gained confidence in its offense, built some security at the quarterback position and filed away the experience for the future.

One could argue that the 2006 team is the 2005 team -- only it's been re-engineered to win games like the one it dropped to Carolina in January. The 2006 Bears won't feel like tourists in the playoffs. They belong, and they know what to do when they get there.

1. Rex Grossman. If you judge by the fantasy experts, Rex Grossman has all the appeal of week-old road kill. Fantasy Guru ranks him below such stars as Charlie Frye, J.P. Losman, Billy Volek, Philip Rivers, Brad Johnson, David Carr, Jon Kitna and Aaron Brooks. CBS Sportsline offers a slightly better picture, moving our man Rex up to No. 29 among quarterbacks. Clearly, the national pundits don't think that Grossman and the Bears offense are safe bets to put up competitive passing statistics.

They're dead wrong.

To understand the Grossman difference, flash back to this time last year, when Grossman and Muhammad were excited to be working out with each other, spending extra time outside of team activities building a special rapport. Grossman's broken ankle not only blew-up out the bulk of his season, it wiped clean months of progress and teamwork. Orton proved to be a gamer, but one never got the sense that the offense had any kind of chemistry or rythmn.

Now fast-forward to the Atlanta game: Chicago is clinging to a 6-3 lead when Grossman enters the game to thunderous applause in the third quarter. His first play from scrimmage, a 22-yard laser strike to Muhammad, is electrifying, a glimpse of what could have been. Grossman leads the team to two third quarter scores and the Bears go on to win 16-3. The following week, in his only regular-season start of 2005, Grossman notched an emotional victory at Green Bay.

In the playoff game against Carolina, the team spotted the Panthers a 13-point lead before Grossman led the Bears on touchdown drives of 67, 68 and 66 yards. His lone interception came late in the fourth, with time running out, as he moved the Bears toward a chance to tie the score with a two-point conversion.

Grossman is far from a polished QB. His passer rating is nothing to write home about. He tends to throw the same sorts of interceptions Brett Favre does and he lacks both Carson Palmer's pocket-passer size and Michael Vick's running threat wheels. Most importantly, he's been unable to stay on the field.

None of that matters, not in 2006. Grossman's injuries have been freakish, and there's no more reason to label him a health risk than there is to put that label on any NFL quarterback. When it comes to his talents, be prepared to watch them shine: Grossman is a nimble, aggressive, charismatic quarterback who makes plays and elevates the play of those around him. He is active in the pocket, makes quick decisions, avoids sacks and has a world-class release. His arm is more than adequate to the NFL game, and he has the single most important attribute of all great NFL quarterbacks: mental toughness.

It says here that Rex Grossman will start all 16 games for Chicago in 2006, generating middle-of-the pack statistics in a balanced offense. Expect 20 touchdown passes against 11 or 12 interceptions in the regular season, followed by an NFC championship victory at Soldier Field and a Super Bowl win over Indianapolis.

For the Bears to be great, the quarterback only has to be good. Rex Grossman will be good. I have a sneaking suspicion he may wind up being much better than good.

In August of 2006, we stand on the brink of the greatest Bears season since 1985. I recommend we all do our best to enjoy every single second of it. The planets have aligned, and it could be another 20 years since we see anything like this again.