Tuesday, February 20, 2007

2007 Bears: After the flood

OK, so back in August I was more right than wrong, but... Geez, was I wrong. I predicted the Bears would beat the Colts in the Super Bowl. I predicted it in August. I predicted it in February. I was still predicting it in the fourth quarter of that demoralizing loss.

But now that's over, the pain is fading, and the 2007 off-season is underway. So let's set the table for what should be an intriguing year.

COACHING: Job No. 1 for the front office is signing Coach Smith to a long-term deal, and it needs to be a respectable contract. Something just shy of the super-star money that gets paid to legends who come back from the TV booth, and heavy on stability. If we're lucky, we'll get a decade out of Lovie.

By the way, letting DC Ron Rivera go was a painful move, but a good one. Two words: Panthers, Colts. Babich should be an appropriate replacement. The second-most important coaching contract on this staff? Wade Wilson, quarterbacks coach. Keep him, because he's the most important person in Rex Grossman's world right now.

FRONT OFFICE: Jerry Angelo deserves a long-term contract too. He's got his coach. Pair their destinies.

QUARTERBACK: Never in my life have I seen a successful young quarterback take the media whipping that Rex Grossman received before, during and after the Super Bowl. This isn't just a conversational topic, either: As media and fans, we're on the verge of destroying the best quarterback the Bears have had since Eric Kramer. Grossman should face an open competition for the starting job in training camp, but Angelo should resist calls to bring in yet another veteran free agent. Let the three QBs on the roster duke it out for the top spot this summer, and don't be surprised when Grossman emerges as the starter and a Pro Bowl selection. I think he has the ability to be a better than average quarterback, and that's saying a lot for a Bears signal caller.

RUNNING BACK: Looks like we'll have another year of the Jones & Benson show, and that's fine by me. Two backs are better than one these days.

WIDE RECEIVER: Don't look now, but Muhsin Muhammad has been fading for the past two years. I'm not anxious to do anything about that -- he's still a contributor and a leader. But we need to find out whether Mark Bradley has the stuff to make it as an eventual starter. Bernard Berrian is a keeper, and if Bradley can match his progress, then the Bears will go into 2007 four-deep at the position.

TIGHT END: Desmond Clark had a good year, but there's no doubt that we need to address this position early in the draft.

OFFENSIVE LINE: Expect a veteran free agent signing and at least one first-day draft pick. O-Line is one of the most over-rated positions on the squad -- and the oldest. Eric Steinbach of the Bengals is an intriguing prospect (so long as we keep him at his natural guard position), and left tackle Leonard Davis of the Cardinals would allow John Tait to move back to right guard. This unit needs an upgrade and an injection of youth.

DEFENSIVE LINE: The pass rush went on hiatus in October and seldom reared its fearsome head after a hot early start. Take away rookie situational pass rusher Mark Anderson and this unit was downright weak when it came to pressure. Obviously the key here is Tommie Harris, but the D-line was actually playing quite average football before his injury. I'm not saying the defensive line is weak, but there are question marks here. My gut feeling? The D-Line played strong in September, but when offensive coordinators got good tape on them, they got gameplanned into spotty performances. Chicago got great success by moving Anderson around in obvious pass rushing situations, but for the most part, this line got neutralized. This is actually the place where Angelo will have to make some important decisions early, since Alfonso Boone and Ian Scott are both Unrestricted Free Agents who will garner interest around the league, while celebrity bad-boy Tank Johnson is an RFA.

LINEBACKER: With two premiere players, it's easy to identify the linebacking corps as a strength. I call it a need area. Hunter Hillenmeyer is a serviceable starter, once you get past him there's really nothing much to talk about. Chicago needs linebacker depth and can't afford to look at this position as just another place to stash special teams talent. Here's hoping the Bears hunt up a veteran free agent for depth and invest in more talent in the draft. One final, crazy thought: I'm not convinced that Brian Urlacher wouldn't be a better player at the weakside.

CORNERBACK: I'm very happy with this situation... or I should be. Chicago comes in with three legitimate corners, plus talented depth in Devin Hester. None of the Bears' CBs have that kind of Ty Law/Champ Bailey shut-down skill, but they're extremely talented within a Tampa Two. The problem: Nickel Ricky Manning Jr. is an unrestricted free agent, and a better CB than most teams have at starter. What happens if his price creates conflict with the contracts for Tillman and Vasher? Can we even keep him?

SAFETY: Here's a wild card. What's Mike Brown's future with the team? As far as I'm concerned, a Bears defense with Brown and Harris would have shut down Peyton Manning on some of those third downs (just look at what Bob Sanders meant for the Colts), but that's pie in the sky thinking. Can Brown make it back? Can he make it through a complete season? Manning was an overlooked contributor as a rookie starter, and Chris Harris is only in his second season, but neither is a proven star, and Todd Johnson looks like a big hitter without much else right now (he's also a restricted free agent).

PUNT/KICK COVERAGE & RETURN: I don't think there's a better group of special teamers in the league than the combo of Brendan Ayanbedejo, Adrian Peterson, Dante Wesley, Israel Idonije and Patrick Mannelly. They get after opponents, make good decisions and give the Bears a fantastic weapon. Even without Devin Hester, these guys are difference-makers. And Hester is a game-changing performer.

PUNTER: Brother Maynard doesn't put up gaudy stats. Who cares? He's a reliable, effective punter.

KICKER: Robbie Gould was merely a short-range option as a rookie. In his second-year, he turned in an All Pro kicker, despite not having a great leg for the long bombers. What will he become in is third season?

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